早苗经济学：安倍经济学2.0？

Group 1: Economic Policy Comparison - Sanae Takai's economic policy, termed "Takai Economics," emphasizes responsible fiscal policy, contrasting with Abe's focus on aggressive monetary easing[2] - Takai's government faces significant political constraints, with the ruling party holding only 49.7% of seats in the Diet, compared to Abe's 67.9%[2] - Takai's approval rating stands at 44%, significantly lower than Abe's 60% during his tenure[2] Group 2: Fiscal Policy Outlook - Japan's fiscal deficit is projected to rise from 1.3% in FY 2025 to approximately 2.0% in FY 2026, indicating a more expansionary fiscal stance[3] - The fiscal stimulus package under Takai may exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen, with a GDP impact estimated at around 0.25%[3] - Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio remains high, but interest payment pressures are manageable due to low foreign debt and long maturities[3] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes are expected to lag, with market predictions suggesting a 50 basis point increase in 2026[4] - High inflation and a weak yen are significant constraints on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, with a 10% depreciation of the yen estimated to raise inflation by 0.3 percentage points[4] - The core CPI in Japan rose to 2.9% in September, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[4]