信用利差周度跟踪 20251025：信用利差压缩向中长端传导，二永债重回震荡格局-20251025

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Credit spread repair has spread to the medium and long - ends. Interest - rate bonds continued to fluctuate. Credit bond yields at all maturities and ratings decreased significantly, with larger declines at medium and long - ends. Credit spreads at all ratings converged, with more significant compression in 5Y and above varieties [2][5]. - Urban investment bond spreads generally declined by 5 - 6BP. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms decreased. By administrative level, provincial and municipal platform spreads decreased by 5BP, and district - county platform spreads decreased by 6BP [2][9]. - Most industrial bond spreads declined, while spreads of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds continued to rise. Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased, while those of mixed - ownership and private real - estate bonds increased. Coal, steel, and some chemical bond spreads decreased [2][18]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual bonds returned to a fluctuating pattern, with low - grade secondary bonds making up for losses. Yields and spreads of different maturities and ratings showed different changes [2][27]. - The 3Y excess spreads of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds diverged, while the 5Y excess spreads were stable [2][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Credit Spread Repair Spreads to the Medium and Long - Ends - Interest - rate bonds fluctuated. 1Y, 7Y, and 10Y Guokai bond yields rose by 2BP, 3BP, and 1BP respectively, while 3Y and 5Y yields remained flat. Credit bond yields at all maturities and ratings decreased significantly, with larger declines at medium and long - ends. Credit spreads at all ratings converged, with more significant compression in 5Y and above varieties. Rating and term spreads also showed different changes [5]. 2. Urban Investment Bond Spreads Generally Decline by 5 - 6BP - By external rating, AAA platform spreads decreased by 5BP, AA + and AA by 6BP. Different provinces showed different decline ranges. By administrative level, provincial and municipal platform spreads decreased by 5BP, and district - county platform spreads decreased by 6BP [9][13][15]. 3. Most Industrial Bond Spreads Decline, while Spreads of Mixed - Ownership and Private Real - Estate Bonds Continue to Rise - Central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads decreased by 3 - 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads increased by 17BP, and private real - estate bond spreads increased by 37BP. Coal, steel, and some chemical bond spreads decreased [18]. 4. The Yields of Secondary and Perpetual Bonds Return to a Fluctuating Pattern, with Low - Grade Secondary Bonds Making up for Losses - 1Y AA + and AAA - grade secondary capital bond yields rose by 1 - 2BP, AA grade remained flat, and all - grade perpetual bond yields rose by 1BP, with spreads compressing by 0 - 2BP. 3Y AAA - grade secondary bond yields rose by 3BP, AA + grade by 1BP, AA - grade decreased by 2BP, and all - grade perpetual bond yields remained flat. 5Y AA + and above - grade secondary bond yields and spreads changed within 1BP, AA - grade spreads and yields decreased by 5BP; all - grade perpetual bond yields rose by 1 - 2BP, and spreads rose by 0 - 1BP [27]. 5. The 3Y Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Diverge, while the 5Y Excess Spreads are Stable - The 3Y excess spread of industrial AAA perpetual bonds decreased by 1.62BP to 13.89BP, at the 35.51% quantile since 2015. The 5Y excess spread remained flat at 12.39BP, at the 26.19% quantile. The 3Y excess spread of urban investment AAA perpetual bonds increased by 1.67BP to 6.64BP, at the 8.51% quantile; the 5Y excess spread decreased by 0.08BP to 11.00BP, at the 16.51% quantile [31]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank secondary and perpetual spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are based on ChinaBond medium - short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data. Urban investment and industrial bond spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by the R & D center of Cinda Securities. Historical quantiles are calculated since the beginning of 2015 [36]. - The calculation methods for individual bond spreads, excess spreads, and sample selection criteria are provided [38].