PAB(SZ:000001) ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2025-10-25 15:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [6][7]. Core Views - The report highlights significant improvements in risk generation and profitability pressures for Ping An Bank in Q3 2025, with a focus on the recovery of balance sheet expansion and changes in corporate risk [1]. - The bank's revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively, but showed a slight improvement compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.05% at the end of Q3 2025, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 9 percentage points to 230% [1][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1 to Q3 2025, Ping An Bank's revenue and net profit decreased by 9.8% and 3.5% year-on-year, with improvements of 0.3 percentage points and 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of 2025 [2][3]. - The bank's average interest-earning assets decreased by 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, with significant reductions in interbank and bill assets by 6.4% and 41.1%, respectively [2][3]. Profitability - The net interest margin for Q3 2025 increased by 3 basis points to 1.79%, with a year-on-year decline narrowing by 7 basis points compared to Q2 2025 [3]. - Non-interest income for the first three quarters of 2025 showed a slight decline of 0.1%, while other non-interest income decreased by 24.1% year-on-year [2][3]. Risk Management - The non-performing loan ratio, attention loan ratio, and overdue loan ratio remained stable or improved, with the non-performing loan ratio at 1.05% and the attention loan ratio decreasing to 1.74% [5][19]. - The TTM generation rate for non-performing and attention loans significantly decreased by 52 basis points to 1.74%, indicating improved risk generation [5][20]. Retail Transformation - Retail loans showed a slight recovery with a 0.1% increase in average daily balance in Q3 2025, marking the first halt in decline since Q1 2024 [4]. - Wealth management business continued to grow, with wealth management income reaching nearly 4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16% [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit for Ping An Bank from 2025 to 2027 is expected to decline by 2.00% in 2025, followed by slight growth in subsequent years [6]. - The target price is maintained at 14.00 yuan per share, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 0.61x for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 21% from the current price [6].