油脂油料月报：马棕油减产周期到来，油脂有望止跌反弹-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the soybean meal market, South American soybean sowing will fully commence in November, with potential weather - related speculation. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, but the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. US soybean prices depend on export improvement and the outcome of Sino - US negotiations. Domestic soybean meal supply may decline in November, and inventory may decrease steadily, boosting the basis. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases after the Sino - US talks are crucial for the soybean meal market [2][58][133]. - In the oil market, the US soybean oil market is affected by multiple factors such as cost, oil - meal arbitrage, industrial consumption, and bio - diesel policies, remaining range - bound. In November, Southeast Asian palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle, and Malaysia's high palm oil inventory pressure may ease. Indonesia's palm oil inventory remains low, but the B50 bio - diesel policy is still unclear. The domestic oil market faces an oversupply situation, with inventory likely to increase steadily. However, there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound in November [3][131][134]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - In October, CBOT soybeans fluctuated higher, influenced by factors such as the USDA quarterly inventory report, Sino - US trade relations, and the NOPA report. Domestic soybean meal markets fluctuated lower due to reduced supply concerns and weak terminal demand. International oils were range - bound, with US soybean oil showing weakness and Malaysian palm oil being relatively strong [7][8]. 3.2 Protein Meal 3.2.1 Brazilian Soybean Sowing - As of October 16, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean sowing progress reached 24%, higher than the previous week and last year but lower than two years ago. With increased rainfall, the sowing progress has accelerated significantly. In November, Brazilian soybean sowing will fully start, with potential weather - related speculation in the northeast and south. Brazilian soybean production is expected to be high, and the export of old - crop soybeans is uncertain. If US soybean exports improve, Brazilian soybean premiums may decline [13][18][23]. 3.2.2 US Soybean Demand - The US government shutdown has affected the release of USDA reports. As of October 21, about 39% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought. US soybean exports are far lower than last year, and the possibility of a significant reduction in exports is high. Mississippi River transportation bottlenecks and uncertain bio - diesel policies also affect US soybean demand. If the USDA report is released in November, US soybean yield and exports are expected to be adjusted downward, and inventory may increase [24][29][42]. 3.2.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Market - As of October 21, the procurement of imported soybeans for different shipping dates showed different progress, with relatively limited procurement in December and January. Domestic soybean inventory is currently abundant but may start to decline in December. Domestic oil mills' operating rates may remain high in November but may decline compared to the previous period. Domestic soybean meal demand has increased slightly in 2025, but the decline in pig prices may affect demand. Domestic soybean meal inventory may decline steadily in November, and the basis may stop falling and rise slightly. The rhythm and quantity of China's US soybean purchases are crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [44][49][58]. 3.3 Oils 3.3.1 US Soybean Oil - Since mid - October, US soybean oil has declined from its high due to the unwinding of oil - meal arbitrage. In November, the oil - meal ratio may decline. The US biodiesel policy has not been finalized, and the market's demand expectations for US soybean oil have decreased. In November, US soybean oil will be affected by multiple factors and will continue to fluctuate within a range [60][62][67]. 3.3.2 Malaysian Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil production reduction cycle will start in November. In October, production increased, but exports faced resistance. Indonesia's B50 bio - diesel policy is still uncertain, which will affect the Malaysian palm oil market. Malaysian palm oil inventory may start to decline in November, and there is a possibility of a stop - falling and rebound [74][82][91]. 3.3.3 Domestic Oil Market - In November, domestic oil demand is expected to decline steadily due to the delayed Spring Festival. Supply may decrease after November but still exceeds demand, and inventory may continue to increase. Domestic soybean oil inventory is high, and the de - stocking process is slow. Palm oil inventory may increase, and the basis may be under pressure. Rapeseed oil supply may increase in November but is subject to policy risks. The current inverted spread between soybean oil and palm oil may continue, and the oil - meal ratio may be adjusted in the short term [94][99][131]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - For soybean meal, maintain an interval - oscillation mindset, focusing on low - buying and high - selling. For oils, try to buy at the lower limit of the range or buy on dips after the market stabilizes in November [135].