苹果月报：减产背景下，盘面偏强运行-20251026

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of apple production reduction, the futures market is running strongly. The overall supply of late - maturing Fuji apples is low, with common quality problems. The purchase price of high - quality apples is higher than that of the previous season, and there has been a scramble for good - quality goods. The apple market is about to enter the full - scale acquisition stage. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [1][2][44]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the main apple futures contract AP2601 continued to run strongly, breaking through the 8,800 yuan/ton mark and maintaining high - level fluctuations. Affected by rainfall in the producing areas, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. Due to production decline and quality issues, the quantity of high - quality apples is scarce, and most of the good apple orchards in Shaanxi have been pre - ordered. The market has high expectations for the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji, driving the futures market to run strongly [6]. 3.2 Apple Fundamental Analysis - Cold Storage Inventory: As of September 25, 2025, the national cold - storage apple inventory was about 147,900 tons, lower than the same period last year by 107,500 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history. Shandong's cold - storage inventory was about 109,600 tons, Shaanxi's was about 36,900 tons, and non - main producing areas had about 1,400 tons [10]. - New - Season Apple Sales: New - season apples are gradually being listed. Customers have good purchasing enthusiasm, especially for high - quality goods. The transaction price of apples in the producing areas is stable. In Shandong, the price of high - quality apples is high, with general supply and few transactions. In the northwest, most of the high - quality orchards' goods have been ordered. The arrival volume in the sales market is not large, and the overall price remains stable [16]. - Apple Import: In September 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 9,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.10%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 108,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.49%. It is expected that the import volume in the fourth quarter may decline, and the import scale will remain at the current level [21]. - Apple Export: In September 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 70,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.32%. The fourth quarter and the first quarter of the next year are the peak export seasons. It is expected that the export volume in the fourth quarter of 2025 will increase month - on - month, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand [25]. - Seasonal Fruit Impact: In October, fruit prices increased slightly month - on - month but were lower than the same period last year. Seasonal fruits are gradually leaving the market, which is beneficial for the recovery of apple demand. Citrus, a major winter fruit, has a large supply and low price, competing with apples around the Spring Festival [28][31]. - Merchant Acquisition: In Shandong Yantai Qixia, new - season apples have started to be acquired at prices based on quality. The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia is 0.29 yuan/jin. Currently, low - price acquisitions have a larger profit margin [36]. - Apple Consumption Seasonality: Based on five - year historical price statistics, the months with a high probability of price increases are September, November, and December, while the months with a high probability of price decreases are April, August, and October [38][39]. - New - Season Apple Quality: Affected by rainfall, the listing time of new - season apples has been postponed. There are quality problems such as water cracks, fruit rust, small fruit size, and slow coloring in Shandong and Shaanxi. The overall supply of high - quality apples is low [42]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Supply: Late - maturing Fuji apples are in the bag - removing stage, with a generally postponed listing time. There are various quality problems in different producing areas. - Demand: Customers have high enthusiasm for purchasing new - season apples, especially high - quality ones. The transaction price in the producing areas is stable. The full - scale acquisition stage is approaching. The market may realize the previous production reduction expectations, and the later driving logic will shift to the demand side. It is recommended to gradually take profits on long positions [44].