外盘弱势拖累，郑糖上方承压

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International sugar prices face significant upside pressure, but the downside space below 15 cents per pound is expected to be limited unless new negative factors emerge. The domestic sugar market is expected to remain weak in the short term with limited fluctuation space, as it lacks pricing power and mainly follows the trend of the international market [2][20]. - The operation suggestion is to focus on short - term trading of Zhengzhou sugar futures [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - In October, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. After falling below the support level of around 5,400 yuan per ton under the drag of the international market, they recovered and returned above 5,400 yuan per ton. International sugar prices continued to decline in October, reaching a minimum of 15.03 cents per pound, due to the optimistic output prospects of major sugar - producing countries [5]. 2. International Market Analysis 2.1 Brazil - Brazil's recent bi - weekly production data is strong. As of October 1, 2025/26, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region was 33.524 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.08%. The bi - weekly sugar - making ratio has significantly decreased. The sugar - making ratio in the second half of September was 51.17%, compared with 53.49% in the first half of September. The average sugarcane yield per hectare in the central - southern region this season decreased by 6.5% compared with the previous season, but the recent yield data has improved. As long as Brazil's annual estimated sugar production does not exceed 42 million tons, it is difficult to trigger a new round of price decline [7]. 2.2 India - There are significant differences in India's new - year sugar production estimates. The Indian government is optimistic about sugar production due to sufficient early rainfall, and reservoir storage has increased significantly. However, heavy rain at the end of the monsoon in Maharashtra damaged nearly 2.83 million hectares of crops, and the sugarcane yield per hectare in this state has been revised down. The Indian government has estimated the new - year sugar production to be 34 million tons, and the industry generally expects 1 - 2 million tons of exports in the new season. Before the production data is clear, India is unlikely to export, so the short - term supply pressure from India is not large [11][12]. 3. Domestic Market Analysis 3.1 Production - Domestic beet sugar production has fully started, with the estimated output slightly lower than before. The sugar content in Inner Mongolia is higher than the same period last year, and 13 out of 14 sugar mills in Xinjiang have started production. The sugarcane - producing areas in Guangdong, Guangxi, and Yunnan have been affected by typhoons, which may lead to a decline in sugarcane yield and sugar content [14]. 3.2 Supply and Demand - The supply of refined sugar remains abundant, and the prices of refined sugar mills have been continuously lowered. In September, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 150,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 3.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 280,000 tons. The extrusion effect of refined sugar on domestic sugar sales is obvious, and the commercial inventories in Guangxi and Yunnan in September increased year - on - year, resulting in significant pressure on spot prices [16].