预期偏弱，但下方空间有限

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - In November 2025, iron ore demand is expected to decline, but the decline may not be significant. The supply side is likely to follow the demand and experience a slight decline. Steel demand has some resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be a short - term behavior. With the market starting to focus on steel mills' restocking expectations for iron ore in November, there is support at the lower end of iron ore prices. Therefore, iron ore prices may show a trend of bottom - finding and then rebounding in November [3][24][26]. 3. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - In October 2025, iron ore prices fluctuated and declined but remained in the high - level oscillation range since July. Before the National Day, steel prices started to decline. Steel demand was weak, while production was high. Market funds mainly aimed to short steel mill profits, and iron ore prices were relatively strong. Driven by policies, there is an expectation of a decline in steel mill supply in the far - month, and steel spot profits are constantly compressed. The market anticipates steel mill production cuts, causing raw material prices to fluctuate under the pressure of negative feedback expectations. High steel production drives strong iron ore demand, with active iron ore shipments. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand and is affected by steel inventory accumulation, resulting in high - level oscillations [3][5][25]. Supply - Iron ore supply was at a relatively high level in October. In August, monthly iron ore imports reached 105.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. Low - cost iron ore from Simandou is expected to start increasing production at the end of 2025, with an annual production capacity gradually rising by 30 million tons, having little impact on 2025 supply but increasing long - term supply expectations. High - cost iron ore supply decreased significantly throughout the year, but it can be quickly released if future demand is strong. High - frequency data shows that iron ore supply increased significantly in October but not year - on - year. Facing the seasonal off - season, high - level iron ore supply may decline with the decrease in hot metal production. If supply remains strong, it will put pressure on iron ore prices [3][8][25]. Demand - In October, hot metal production oscillated at a high level, remaining above 2.4 million tons per day, stronger than expected. As steel is at the end of the seasonal peak season, rebar production capacity has declined, but plate supply is at a high level, supporting hot metal production. The iron ore market has both strong supply and demand, and prices are relatively strong. Attention should be paid to whether the weak steel demand can be transmitted to the iron ore market. High hot metal production has led to continuous inventory depletion, and port inventory has been decreasing. The inventory depletion in July was mainly due to strong demand. Before July, the market was pessimistic about iron ore, and strong demand was not reflected. As market sentiment improved, iron ore prices rebounded to correct the pessimistic expectations [3][16][26]. Terminal Demand - Real estate demand continues to decline. In August, real estate data showed that the cumulative year - on - year decline in new construction area was 20%, and real estate sales were also lackluster. Building material demand is expected to remain weak, dragging down overall demand. Despite continuous policy mentions of stabilizing economic development, real estate and traditional infrastructure are unlikely to regain strength. After the implementation of the anti - involution policy, steel production has remained high. Although rebar production shows signs of reduction, plate production is still high, and steel inventory pressure is significant. It is expected that steel production capacity will gradually decline, putting pressure on iron ore demand [19][21]. Summary and Outlook - The situation in October and the analysis of supply, demand, and terminal demand are similar to the above - mentioned content. Overall, in November, iron ore demand is expected to decline slightly, and supply may also decline slightly. Steel demand has resilience, and steel mill production cuts may be short - term. With the market's focus on restocking expectations, iron ore prices may bottom out and then rebound [3][24][26].