Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the corn industry. 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, after the production increase in South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, the production estimates of the Northern Hemisphere countries like the US and Ukraine have increased again. The global corn market remains relatively loose, and international corn prices will continue to run at a low level [1][30]. - Domestically, the new - season corn production is generally expected to increase, and the cost has decreased. The market anticipates significant listing pressure later, so grain - purchasing entities are relatively cautious in procurement. Although the price difference between wheat and corn has been repaired recently, and feed enterprises may adjust the corn usage ratio back, the motivation to significantly increase inventory is limited due to the low profits in the breeding industry and the policy - guided capacity reduction. In the deep - processing sector, although the processing profits of some local enterprises have been repaired, the high finished - product inventory restricts the initiative to significantly increase inventory. The current visible inventory at the north - south ports is low, with some restocking space later. According to the general seasonal pattern, the grain - selling progress in Northeast China will accelerate in November, increasing market pressure, and domestic corn may show a weak and volatile pattern [1][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since October, the domestic spot price of corn has dropped significantly. In North China, due to long - term rainfall during the harvest period, the corn moisture content is high, and the storage is difficult.潮粮 is mainly sold to the deep - processing sector, and enterprises have taken the opportunity to lower prices. In Northeast China, the harvest season has arrived, with a strong production increase expectation and reduced planting costs, and the grass - roots have a good attitude towards selling grain. On the demand side, the breeding profit has continued to deteriorate, the feed demand expectation has worsened, and the deep - processing operation rate is low, providing insufficient support for corn. The futures price has dropped but performed better than the spot price overall. After mid - October, it rebounded with the support of the State Reserve's grain purchase. The basis of the northern port corn to C2511 has decreased from a high level and returned to the normal range [3]. 3.2 International Corn Market Analysis - US New - Season Corn Supply and Demand are Loose: According to the USDA's September supply - demand report, the 2025/26 US corn harvest area is 36.44 million hectares, the yield per unit is 11.72 tons per hectare, and the total output is 427 million tons. The feed consumption is 155 million tons, the food and processing demand is 177 million tons, the export is 75.57 million tons, and the year - end carry - over inventory is 536 million tons. Although the total supply has increased, the carry - over inventory has decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has dropped to 13.14%, still the highest since 2020/2021 [5]. - The Production of Brazil and Argentina is Expected to Remain at a High Level: According to the USDA's September estimate, the 2024/25 Brazilian corn output is 135 million tons, with an export of 43 million tons and domestic consumption of 93 million tons. For 2025/26, the output is predicted to be 131 million tons, slightly lower than the previous year. The CONAB's latest estimate shows that the 2025/26 Brazilian corn output is expected to reach 138 million tons, about 3 million tons less than the previous year. In Argentina, the 2024/25 output is estimated at 50 million tons, with a slight decrease in export and a slight increase in consumption, and a small increase in inventory. The 2025/26 output is predicted to be 53 million tons, with an export of 37 million tons and a carry - over inventory of 3.18 million tons. Overall, the total output of Brazil and Argentina in South America increased significantly in 2024/25, and the export supply capacity has recovered. The 2025/26 output is currently predicted to be generally stable, but the prediction is still early and needs continuous tracking [8]. - The New - Season Corn Output in Ukraine is Expected to Increase Recoveringly: According to the USDA's estimate, the 2025/26 Ukrainian corn output is expected to be 32 million tons, an increase of 5.2 million tons or 19.4% compared to the previous year. The increase is mainly due to a slight increase in area and the recovery of yield per unit. The final end - of - period carry - over inventory is 1.14 million tons, recovering compared to the previous year. The growth situation of Ukrainian corn is good, and the prospect of production increase is clear [10]. 3.3 Domestic Corn Market Analysis - The New - Season Output is Expected to Increase, with High Listing Pressure: According to the analysis report of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the 2025/26 national corn output is expected to reach 296 million tons, an increase of more than 1 million tons compared to the previous year, mainly due to the increase in yield per unit. Folk surveys also tend to predict an increase in production, with some estimating an increase of 10 million tons by the end of the year. Overall, due to good lighting conditions, the expectation of a full - year production increase is basically undisputed. In North China, the corn quality is poor due to continuous rainfall during the harvest period, while in Northeast China, the weather has been good, and the grain quality has been significantly improved. At the beginning of the new - season corn listing in 2025, the sales progress in many places in Northeast China was faster than the same period of the previous year. However, considering that the peak listing period of new - season corn in Northeast China is usually after "freezing" and there is a bumper harvest this year, the impact of the autumn grain listing in the north may have just begun. The purchase prices of the State Reserve are generally slightly lower than last year, matching the cost decrease. Currently, both the State Reserve and downstream grain - using enterprises have a cautious purchasing attitude [13]. - The Price Difference between Wheat and Corn has Increased, and the Corn Usage Ratio has Rebounded: Since October, the wheat price has risen slightly, while the North China corn price has been suppressed by the new - season listing. The price difference between wheat and corn has increased rapidly, and wheat has lost its substitution advantage over corn considering the protein difference. From the statistics of the Feed Industry Association, the corn addition ratio in compound feed has stabilized in August and rebounded in September. If the price difference remains in the later period, the feed industry may gradually adjust back the corn usage ratio. However, the lack of confidence in future feed consumption growth in the industry restricts the feed enterprises' inventory - building enthusiasm. The pig and egg - laying industries are in a loss state, and the expectation of capacity reduction restricts the feed enterprises' initiative to build inventory [15][18]. - The Raw Material Cost has Decreased, and the Deep - Processing Profit has Improved: In October, the starch processing profit has seasonally rebounded due to the decrease in raw material cost caused by the new - season corn listing. However, the current processing profit is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period, limiting the increase in the operation rate. The processing profit of alcohol enterprises has also been significantly repaired in October, mainly in Henan Province. The profit increase in Henan is due to the high moisture content and poor quality of new - season corn caused by continuous rainfall, which can only be used for alcohol production. The raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has rapidly rebounded in October, but it is still at a relatively low level compared to the same period, indicating that enterprises lack the initiative to significantly increase inventory [20][22]. - The Inventory in the Circulation Link is Still Low but will Increase Seasonally Later: The inventory at the northern ports has slightly rebounded to 1 million tons, with a significant increase in the arrival and shipment volume. As the new - season corn harvest in Northeast China progresses, the port inventory will increase seasonally. The grain inventory in the Guangdong sales area is currently at a relatively high level compared to the same period, mainly due to the large arrival of imported barley. For corn, the domestic - trade corn inventory remains low, while the foreign - trade corn inventory has increased significantly due to the increase in arrival [24].
等待上市压力释放，玉米偏弱震荡
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-25 23:33