Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the calculation of piglet birth numbers, the current period to March next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally maintain an increasing pattern in the later period. - The cross - verification of feed production and sales shows that the month - on - month growth rate of fattening feed sales in August and September is good, indicating that the inventory of social pig sources is gradually increasing. - From the perspective of the slaughter rhythm, since September, the average slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, while that of small - scale farmers has decreased, but both are higher year - on - year, reflecting that the live inventory is still high. - From the demand side, November to January is the traditional consumption peak season. However, under the situation of insufficient overall consumption confidence, the peak season may not have an unexpected performance, and the final impact on prices still depends on the matching degree of future supply. - Since October, with the increase in the price difference between fat and standard pigs, secondary fattening has increased again. Without effective reduction of the overall live inventory, secondary fattening will increase the supply before the peak season and suppress the performance space of the peak season. - Currently, the futures price is at a premium, which has priced in the peak - season expectation to some extent. In the short term, attention should be paid to the duration of secondary fattening; in the medium term, the time point of reducing live inventory; in the long term, the industry's capacity reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. - In terms of operation, adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for contracts LH2601 and LH2603. Treat the far - month contract LH2609 as a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying [1][23]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Review - Since October, the spot market of live pigs has declined significantly. The spot price in Henan, the benchmark area, has approached the 11 - yuan mark, and that in Guangxi has even fallen below 10 yuan. After the National Day holiday, the futures price of live pigs dropped sharply and then rebounded in shock in late October. - The consumption boost during the holiday was ineffective, and large - scale farms accelerated the slaughter rhythm, leading to a sharp decline in the spot price. As the pig price fell, some farmers began to hold back sales, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs widened, indicating a shortage of large pigs in the market and a weakening of the short - term selling impact. - In late October, the large - scale cooling in high - temperature areas in the South was beneficial to consumption. In addition, traditionally, the consumption volume increases significantly month - on - month starting from November. Driven by the expectation of the consumption peak season and the high price difference between fat and standard pigs, the active entry of secondary fattening was the main driving force for the rebound of the pig price in late October [3]. b. Supply and Demand Analysis of Live Pigs - High Supply of Fattened Pigs in the Later Period Shown by Piglet Data: The national inventory of breeding sows reached a peak of 40.8 million in November 2024 and then fluctuated downward. By the end of September, it was 40.35 million, a reduction of 1.1% from the peak. In October, due to the decline in pig prices, the slaughter volume of culled sows increased in some areas. The piglet birth numbers from various institutions show that the slaughter pressure will gradually increase until November 2025 and will not significantly decrease until March 2026 [5]. - Increase in Social Pig Sources Confirmed by Feed Sales: From June to September 2025, the sales of piglet feed and nursery feed generally increased steadily. The month - on - month growth rate of fattening pig feed sales in August and September 2025 was still high, indicating an overall increase in the inventory of social pig sources, but the marginal increase may be slightly lower than last year [8]. - Rise in Secondary Fattening with High Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: The average slaughter weight of small - scale farmers' pigs peaked and declined in September but was still at a high level year - on - year. The average weight of large - scale farms' pigs bottomed out and rebounded in early September, with a small increase overall and also an increase year - on - year. The price difference between fat and standard pigs further soared in September, indicating a tightening supply of fat pigs after the slaughter of large pigs by small - scale farmers. Since August, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has continuously declined to a relatively low level but rebounded in October due to the high price difference between fat and standard pigs and the low absolute price [10][12]. - Significant Increase in Slaughter Volume but Limited Demand: According to the Ministry of Commerce, the national pig slaughter volume has increased significantly compared with last year, reflecting an increase in domestic pig supply. The fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses has decreased, and the utilization rate of frozen - product storage capacity has continuously increased, reflecting the sluggish terminal consumption and the inability to effectively absorb the increased supply. November and December are traditional consumption peak seasons, with a month - on - month increase of 10% in daily consumption in November and over 15% in December. The strengthening of later - stage consumption may provide some support for the spot price, but the market trend still depends on the comprehensive comparison of supply and demand forces [14]. - Industry in Loss and Limited Space for Cost Reduction: Since the second half of September 2025, the pig price has weakened rapidly, and the pig - farming profit has also deteriorated significantly. As the national average price fell below 12 yuan, the profit of the self - breeding and self - fattening model has entered the loss range. Recently, the price of piglets has fallen, and the expected slaughter cost of fattened pigs from purchased piglets has also dropped rapidly. The feed cost has limited room for further decline, and the low pig price will continue to squeeze profits and may gradually stimulate the industry's capacity reduction [20]. c. Conclusion and Market Outlook - The current period to March next year is the stage when the domestic pig slaughter pressure is realized, and the theoretical slaughter volume will generally maintain an increasing pattern. - The cross - verification of feed production and sales shows an increase in the inventory of social pig sources. - The live inventory is still high. The peak season may not have an unexpected performance, and secondary fattening will suppress the performance space of the peak season. - In the short term, pay attention to the duration of secondary fattening; in the medium term, focus on the time point of reducing live inventory; in the long term, watch the industry's capacity reduction rhythm under the background of profit compression. - Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for contracts LH2601 and LH2603. Treat the far - month contract LH2609 as a wide - range oscillation and pay attention to the opportunity of low - level band buying [23].
二育带动猪价反弹，供应压制仍未消除
Guo Xin Qi Huo·2025-10-25 23:33