中泰期货PVC烧碱产业链周报-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report PVC - This week, PVC production slightly decreased due to more-than-expected device overhauls. Next week, with some overhauled devices resuming production, production is expected to increase slightly. Export orders increased slightly this week, and this month's domestic apparent demand growth rate may be lower than expected. This week, the old sample of PVC inventory decreased by 28,000 tons, but it is expected to slightly accumulate next week. The upstream comprehensive profit slightly deteriorated, and the export profit also slightly worsened. The downstream demand is weak, and the overall domestic demand is not strong [6][9][10]. Caustic Soda - This week, the production of caustic soda decreased slightly due to more overhaul devices, but the overall production remained at a high level. It is expected to increase slightly next week. The apparent demand this week was around 724,900 tons, and it is estimated to be about 775,300 tons next week. The national inventory slightly accumulated this week, and it is estimated to accumulate next week based on static data, but may slightly decrease if production falls short of expectations. The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor-alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated [103][106]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs PVC 3.1 Spot Market - This week, the overall PVC price slightly decreased, while the caustic soda price remained stable, and the price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded. The prices of Shaanxi semi-coke increased, which may drive up the price of calcium carbide. The price of ethylene slightly strengthened, while the price of VCM decreased [7]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuated weakly, and the monthly spread was in a state of shock. The 1 - 5 spread was in a state of shock, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased slightly [9]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of the PVC upstream slightly deteriorated, and the export profit also slightly worsened. Among them, the production profit of calcium carbide in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia decreased, the profit of northwest integrated PVC decreased, the profit of Shandong enterprises purchasing calcium carbide externally decreased significantly, and the profit of imported ethylene - based PVC decreased [9]. 3.4 Market Expectation - Next week, PVC production is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may slightly accumulate. The downstream demand is expected to remain weak, and the overall market may remain in a weak state [6]. Caustic Soda 3.1 Spot Market - The price of Shandong liquid chlorine rebounded this week, while the price of Shandong raw salt remained stable. The price of caustic soda remained stable, and the comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated [104][106]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of caustic soda weakened, and the monthly spread showed a state of shock. The 1 - 5 spread is recommended to be observed, focusing on the reverse arbitrage opportunity [106]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Profit - The comprehensive profit of Shandong chlor - alkali plants with external sales of liquid chlorine improved, while that of enterprises with supporting PVC slightly deteriorated. The export profit of caustic soda is expected to strengthen [106]. 3.4 Market Expectation - Next week, the production of caustic soda is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory may accumulate. The apparent demand is estimated to be around 775,300 tons. The market may remain relatively stable, but attention should be paid to the impact of production on inventory [103].