聚丙烯产业链周报：供需压力仍大，继续偏弱震荡-20251026

Report Title - Weekly Report on Polypropylene Industry Chain of Zhongtai Futures, October 26, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene market is under significant supply - demand pressure and will continue to fluctuate weakly [1] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Market Main Contradictions - Not provided 2. Polypropylene Supply - Demand Situation Supply - This week, due to more maintenance devices, the national polypropylene production decreased slightly from 80.10 million tons last week to 77.76 million tons, with a decrease of 2.34 million tons. In the next two weeks, as device maintenance decreases, production is likely to remain around 80 million tons. The maintenance loss this week was 21.70 million tons, an increase of 5.68 million tons compared to last week. The import and export volumes remained stable at 6.60 million tons for imports and 5.40 million tons for exports per week. In September, 2.9 billion tons were imported and 2.376 billion tons were exported [6]. - Many new polypropylene devices were put into production in 2024 and 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 4.25 billion tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 5.35 billion tons [20][21]. Demand - Downstream demand is currently not very good, and there is no accurate data for calculation [42]. Inventory - This week, there was a slight reduction in inventory. The total inventory decreased from 98.52 million tons last week to 92.53 million tons, a decrease of 5.99 million tons. It is expected to continue to reduce slightly next week. Upstream and mid - stream inventories also decreased slightly [6]. 3. Polypropylene Basis and Spread Basis - The basis overall showed a weakening trend. The East China basis decreased from - 50 last week to - 113 this week, the North China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140, and the South China basis decreased from - 50 to - 140. The basis opportunities are limited [8]. Spread - The inter - month spread fluctuated. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread decreased from - 52 to - 57. The spread between pellet and powder is too narrow, which has a certain supporting effect on pellet prices. The PP - 3MA spread on the 01 contract decreased from - 265 to - 154, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of shorting PP and going long on MA. The LL - PP spread on the 01 contract decreased from 323 to 307, and there are few short - term opportunities [8]. 4. Summary and Outlook Upper, Middle, and Lower Reaches Views - Upstream: Although currently in the peak maintenance period, the overall supply is still relatively sufficient, and the main idea is to actively sell goods. Despite low production profits, the upstream operating rate remains at a relatively high level without large - scale load reduction [10]. - Middle: The shipping situation has slightly deteriorated. After the rebound of the futures market, the shipping situation of spot - futures arbitrageurs has worsened [10]. - Lower: The replenishment willingness has decreased, and currently, the focus is on digesting previous inventories [10]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly fluctuating - Option: Selling call options strategy [10]