终端需求低位，矿价偏空运行

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a medium - term bearish outlook for unilateral trading, and recommends a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [3] Core Viewpoints - The current demand shows a continuous weakening trend in the domestic market while overseas steel consumption maintains high growth. The high valuation of iron ore prices is unsustainable due to the rapid decline in domestic terminal demand. With the change in the supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore and the suppression of tariff disturbances, iron ore prices are expected to be weak [3][28] Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - Market Situation: This week, iron ore prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and market expectations remained weak. The global iron ore shipment volume remained at a high level, and the supply increase continued. Non - mainstream ore shipments remained high, and the shipments in the fourth quarter are expected to continue to contribute to the increase, but the growth rate may slow down [3] - Demand Analysis: In September, China's economic data further weakened. From July to September, the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was around - 5%. In September, the manufacturing industry continued to operate at a low level, which greatly suppressed domestic terminal steel demand. Overseas, from January to September, the consumption of iron elements increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 10.5% year - on - year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [3][28] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is mainly bearish in the medium term; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [3] Iron Ore Core Logic Analysis Supply Side - Global Shipment Volume: Since 2025, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments is 30.96 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%/1.9 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments are 17.78 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%/3.6 million tons, and Brazil's weekly shipments are 7.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%/10 million tons. The overall supply of the top four mines has increased by 5 million tons year - on - year since the beginning of the year. In the first three quarters, the total output of the top four mines was 852 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%/10 million tons, and the total shipment volume was 830 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%/1 million tons [15] - Non - mainstream Ore: Since 2025, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments is 5.66 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%/12.5 million tons. The shipments of non - mainstream ore are expected to remain high in the fourth quarter, but the year - on - year increase may slow down. A $10 increase in the average price of the Platts Index corresponds to an increase of about 30 - 40 million tons in non - mainstream ore production (annualized) [16][17] - Inventory: This week, the inventory of imported iron ore ports continued to increase. Since August, the total inventory of domestic iron elements has continued to increase, with an accumulation of over 10 million tons. From the perspective of supply - demand deduction, the molten iron output is expected to decline from its high level in the fourth quarter, and the decrease in domestic iron element inventory may mainly occur through significant production cuts by steel mills [23][26] Demand Side - Domestic Demand: From the third quarter of 2025 to the present, domestic molten iron output has increased by 4.1%/11 million tons year - on - year, and crude steel output has increased by 4.1%/13.3 million tons year - on - year. However, the apparent demand for building materials has decreased by 7.2%/9 million tons year - on - year, and the apparent demand for non - building materials has decreased by 1%/1 million tons year - on - year. The domestic crude steel consumption (excluding direct exports) has decreased by 3.5%/10 million tons year - on - year. The manufacturing steel consumption has changed from a year - on - year increase of over 7% in the first half of the year to a year - on - year negative growth in the third quarter, which suppresses the current terminal steel demand [28] - Overseas Demand: From January to September, the overseas consumption of iron elements increased by 2.5% year - on - year, with India's crude steel production increasing by 10.5% year - on - year, and overseas crude steel demand remained at a relatively high level [28]