宏观经济宏观周报：三季度经济的两大惊喜-20251026

Economic Growth Insights - The GDP growth rate for Q3 reached 4.8%, significantly higher than the internal estimate of 4.1%[1] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 13.3 percentage points compared to Q2, while real estate investment growth decreased by 7.2 percentage points[1] - The importance of traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure in economic statistics is declining, indicating a structural change in the economy[1] Export Performance - Q3 export growth was unexpectedly strong at 6.6%, surpassing Q2's 6.2%[2] - The resilience in exports is attributed to the rise of emerging market demand and the rapid reconstruction of global supply chains[2] - Despite trade tensions, China's manufacturing continues to adapt, allowing for smoother exports to major markets[2] Structural Transition - The economic data suggests a profound "shift" in China's economy, moving away from traditional drivers towards new growth engines[3] - The combination of government support, resilient exports, and emerging new drivers is expected to provide a valuable transition period[3] - Risks remain due to uncertainties in overseas markets, which could impact the overall economic stability[3]