KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-26 04:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the basic chemical industry is optimistic (maintained) [1] Core Views - The PTA industry is experiencing severe losses, but there is potential for a positive turnaround due to limited future capacity expansion and high industry concentration [5][27] - The domestic PTA industry's effective capacity has increased from 46.69 million tons in 2019 to 84.27 million tons in 2024, with an average annual compound growth rate of 12.5% [21][23] - The industry concentration ratio (CR7) for PTA has reached 76%, indicating that leading companies have significant pricing power, which supports industry self-discipline and a potential recovery [22][27] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The chemical industry index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.11% this week, with 75.6% of the 545 tracked chemical stocks showing weekly gains [17] - The CCPI (China Chemical Product Price Index) increased by 0.23% to 3885 points [20] PTA Industry Analysis - The PTA industry is projected to add 8.7 million tons of new capacity in 2025, with major contributions from companies like Dongfang Shenghong, Sanfangxiang, and Xin Fengming [5][21] - As of late October 2025, the PTA price spread has fallen below 100 yuan, indicating significant industry losses [25][27] Key Product Tracking - The inventory days for polyester filament yarn have significantly decreased, indicating improved market conditions [29][30] - The domestic urea market price has stabilized at 1596 yuan/ton, with a cautious outlook due to supply-demand pressures [45] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Xin Fengming, and Tongkun Co., among others [5][27] - Beneficiary stocks include Hengyi Petrochemical, Sanfangxiang, and Dongfang Shenghong [5][27]