固收周报20251026：为什么说四季度对于转债配置很重要？-20251026

Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Views of the Report - The sustainability of the main investment theme, summarized as "source-grid-load-storage" driven by the dual catalysts of carbon neutrality and AI in the energy revolution, is beyond doubt and will be a long - term market focus [1][39] - For convertible bond allocation in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to control drawdowns and selectively invest in balanced targets with medium - to - long - term catalysts, favorable static supply - demand patterns, and dynamic supply - demand elasticity to capture more certain structural opportunities in 2026 [1][39] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Market Review 1.1 Equity Market Overall Rise - From October 20th to 24th, the equity market rose overall. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88% to 3950.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.73% to 13289.18 points, the ChiNext Index rose 8.05% to 3171.57 points, and the CSI 300 rose 3.24% to 4660.68 points [6] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets decreased by about 3951.41 billion yuan to 17814.89 billion yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 18.15% [8] - Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 26 industries closed up, with 15 industries rising more than 2%. Communication, electronics, power equipment, machinery, and petroleum and petrochemicals led the gains, rising 11.55%, 8.49%, 4.90%, 4.71%, and 4.33% respectively [13] 1.2 Convertible Bond Market Overall Rise - From October 20th to 24th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.47% to 481.20 points. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 24 industries closed up, with 8 industries rising more than 2%. Machinery, national defense and military industry, electronics, computer, and automobile led the gains, rising 8.78%, 5.51%, 4.53%, 3.40%, and 2.98% respectively [14] - The average daily trading volume of the convertible bond market was 600.23 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 109.27 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 15.40%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of trading volume were Tongguang Convertible Bond, Guanzhong Convertible Bond, etc. [14] - Approximately 84.62% of individual convertible bonds rose, with about 17.07% rising between 0 - 1% and 44.23% rising more than 2% [14] - The overall market conversion premium rate rebounded, with the average daily conversion premium rate at 40.13%, up 1.13 pcts from last week [21] 1.3 Comparison of Stock - Bond Market Sentiments - From October 20th to 24th, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were positive, and the underlying stocks had a larger weekly increase. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased by 15.40% week - on - week, at the 48.90% quantile level since 2022, while the underlying stock market trading volume decreased by 26.95% week - on - week, at the 84.20% quantile level since 2022 [35] - Approximately 85.28% of convertible bonds and 83.61% of underlying stocks closed up, and about 35.83% of convertible bonds had a larger increase or decrease than underlying stocks. Overall, the trading sentiment in the underlying stock market was better this week [35] 2. Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - In the week from October 20th to 24th, the long - and short - term yields of US Treasury bonds slightly recovered from the previous downward trend, the US stock market rose, and the gold price dropped significantly due to the halt of the nominal yield decline and the marginal convergence of geopolitical risks. The risk - aversion sentiment in the overseas market decreased marginally [1][38] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a 10 - year high, and the ChiNext and STAR markets opened higher and closed higher on Friday. Convertible bonds followed the upward trend, and low - priced convertible bonds closed up for the fifth consecutive week, showing better drawdown control ability than medium - priced and high - priced ones [1][39] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion premium rate repair next week are Sheng24 Convertible Bond, Changji Convertible Bond, etc. [1][39]