金属行业周报：看好有色长周期投资价值-20251026

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting long-term investment value [1]. Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector is expected to benefit from new consumption patterns and structural changes, driven by the emphasis on technological self-reliance and new productive forces [1]. - A significant adjustment in gold prices is viewed as a technical correction, with the long-term upward trend remaining intact [1]. - The report emphasizes that the narrative surrounding non-ferrous metals, particularly copper, remains strong, with resource stocks trading at historically low price-to-earnings ratios, presenting attractive valuation opportunities [1]. Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metals sector includes 236 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 5,951.5 billion [2]. - The sector's performance over different time frames shows an absolute return of 7.3% over one month, 47.1% over six months, and 55.0% over twelve months [3]. - The report identifies key metals to focus on, including copper, gold, silver, aluminum, cobalt, rare earths, tungsten, uranium, and antimony [1]. Market Dynamics - Copper inventories in major regions increased by 0.41 thousand tons to 181.6 thousand tons, while total inventories decreased by 3.8 thousand tons compared to the previous year [3]. - The report notes a significant supply disruption in cobalt due to export restrictions from the Democratic Republic of Congo, leading to a tightening of global supply and increased prices [3]. - The aluminum market is experiencing a decline in inventories, with a notable reduction in production capacity due to unexpected cutbacks in major aluminum plants [4]. Price Trends - Cobalt prices increased by 3.7% this week, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle and consumer electronics sectors [3]. - Silver prices fell by 6.65% due to a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates, which diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets [3]. - Lithium carbonate prices showed a slight increase, reflecting robust demand in the battery and energy storage markets [4]. Strategic Focus - The report suggests a focus on companies involved in new materials related to technological advancements, particularly in nuclear fusion and lithium battery production [5]. - It highlights the strategic importance of rare earth elements and their potential for price appreciation in the medium to long term [5].