产能置换实施办法征求意见稿发布，落后产能有望加速退出

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the capacity replacement method is expected to accelerate the exit of backward production capacity, with a replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron and steel production capacity [3] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting growth in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing [3] - The steel industry is anticipated to maintain a stable supply-demand situation, benefiting from high-end steel products and companies with strong cost control and scale effects [3] Supply Situation - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces in sample steel companies is 89.9%, down 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The average daily pig iron production is 2.399 million tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons week-on-week but an increase of 5.54 tons year-on-year [25] - The total production of five major steel products is 7.571 million tons, an increase of 82,100 tons week-on-week [25] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products reached 8.927 million tons as of October 24, an increase of 173,200 tons week-on-week [35] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders is 101,000 tons, up 390 tons week-on-week [35] Inventory Situation - The social inventory of five major steel products is 10.997 million tons, a decrease of 261,400 tons week-on-week [43] - The factory inventory of five major steel products is 4.552 million tons, a decrease of 12,700 tons week-on-week [43] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel is 3,421.0 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.25 yuan/ton week-on-week [49] - The profit for rebar produced in blast furnaces is -60 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] - The average cost of pig iron is 2,383 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [57] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) is 781 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [73] - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.0 yuan/ton week-on-week [73] Company Valuation - Key listed companies in the steel sector are showing potential for valuation recovery, particularly those with high gross margins and strong cost control [3]