债市角度学习二十届四中全会公报

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee's communiqué has a neutral short - term impact on the bond market. The bond market's volatile pattern remains unchanged. It's advisable to seize allocation and trading opportunities after adjustments [2][18]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is a long - term plan. It continues the economic development mainline in recent years, smoothly connects with the "14th Five - Year Plan", and the requirement for the annual economic target is consistent with the Politburo meeting in July [2]. - In the short term, the monetary policy maintains a supportive stance, the capital market is generally stable with low volatility, the broad - spectrum interest rate is still low, and it's difficult for pure - bond assets to generate significant returns. The bond market may remain volatile under various factors [2]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, the expectations of double - rate cuts were dashed, risk appetite increased, and new regulations were pending. The bond market fluctuated, with the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields rising by 2bp and 1bp respectively [9]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" in the Fourth Plenary Session's communiqué is a long - term plan. It emphasizes strategic opportunities coexisting with risks, focuses on economic construction for high - quality development, and deploys 12 sub - tasks. The goal of achieving the annual economic and social development target requires a Q4 GDP growth rate of over 4.6% [10][13]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Market - The central bank made a net injection of 1981 billion yuan this week, and capital interest rates rose. From October 20th to 24th, R001 and DR001 increased by 2bp and 0.3bp respectively compared to October 17th [22][23]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields fluctuated upward this week. All key - term Treasury bond yields rose, and most term spreads narrowed. As of October 24th, the 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond yields increased by 2bp and 1bp respectively compared to October 17th [30]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the 30Y Treasury bond turnover rate slightly declined, the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread continued to narrow, the inter - bank leverage ratio dropped to 107.2%, and the exchange leverage ratio dropped to 122.3%. The median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds first rose and then fell, and the divergence increased [40]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased to 4972 billion yuan. The net financing of Treasury bonds and local government bonds rose, while that of policy - financial bonds decreased. The average issuance rate of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose to 1.65% [52][58]. 3.3 Economic Data - In the third quarter, the economic growth slowed, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in September was strengthened. Since October, automobile retail sales have been weak, while industrial production has continued to improve [62][63]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US CPI in September declined, paving the way for interest - rate cuts. French and German bond markets fell, while emerging markets mostly rose. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread narrowed to 54bp [73][74]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - This week, the performance of major asset classes is as follows: crude oil > live pigs > Shanghai copper > CSI 1000 > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > US dollar > rebar > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > China bonds > Shanghai gold [3][79]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple financial regulatory departments held meetings to learn and implement the spirit of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, emphasizing risk prevention and support for economic development [82]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" has clear development goals and principles, and focuses on building a modern industrial system and other aspects [83][84][85].