铜铝行情接力，近期重视稀土

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market - A" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for copper and aluminum prices, driven by improving fundamentals and market sentiment ahead of US-China trade negotiations. It also highlights the importance of rare earth elements in the current market context [1][2] - The report suggests a sustained bullish trend for precious metals, particularly gold and silver, due to increased central bank and ETF buying, despite recent price corrections [2][3] - The report indicates a tightening supply for aluminum and copper, with expectations of price resilience due to stable domestic supply and recovering demand [3][8] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold and silver prices closed at $4112 and $48.3 per ounce, reflecting declines of 1.9% and 3.2% respectively. The US September CPI was 3%, lower than market expectations, maintaining the outlook for potential Fed rate cuts [2] - Domestic physical gold demand in September rebounded to 118 tons, indicating a recovery in demand [2] - The report maintains a long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, supported by central bank purchases and ETF inflows [2] Industrial Metals Copper - LME copper closed at $10,947 per ton, up 2.19% week-on-week, while SHFE copper was at 87,700 CNY per ton, up 3.52% [2] - September copper concentrate imports in China were 2.587 million tons, down 6.2% month-on-month, indicating a tight supply situation [2] - The report expects copper prices to remain resilient due to supply constraints and stable demand from copper rod and wire cable manufacturers [2][3] Aluminum - LME aluminum closed at $2,856.5 per ton, up 3.25%, with domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreasing to 618,000 tons [3][8] - The report notes that domestic aluminum supply remains stable while overseas supply is tightening, supporting a strong price outlook [3] Tin - SHFE tin futures closed at 283,810 CNY per ton, reflecting a 1.1% increase. The report anticipates a recovery in demand driven by electronic consumption and AI applications [8] Strategic Metals Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium oxide were 501,500 CNY and 6.65 million CNY respectively, with slight declines noted. The report highlights the potential for price increases due to supply-side changes and growing domestic and international demand [9] - The report suggests that the upcoming whitelist system may drive a new round of price increases for rare earths [9] Cobalt - The average price for cobalt reached 406,600 CNY per ton, with tight supply conditions expected to persist, supporting a bullish outlook for cobalt prices [10]