猪价上行缺乏动力,产能去化预期提升
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-10-26 08:06

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on low-cost quality pig farming leaders for investment opportunities [2][12] Core Views - The current price of lean meat pigs is 11.6 CNY/kg, up 5.6% from last week, but the upward momentum lacks sustainability due to ongoing supply pressures and the absence of a consumption peak [11][12] - In the poultry sector, white feather chicken prices have seen slight increases, with broiler prices at 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.1%, and chicken product prices at 8.65 CNY/kg, up 0.6% [12][29] - The approval of genetically modified varieties is expected to enhance the growth potential of industry companies, with commercial sales anticipated to begin post-publicity period [12] - The agricultural sector is experiencing price volatility, with leading feed companies likely to replace smaller competitors due to their advantages in procurement, scale, and capital [12] Summary by Sections Livestock - The lean meat pig price is currently 11.6 CNY/kg, reflecting a 5.6% increase from the previous week, while the average wholesale price of pork is 17.73 CNY/kg, down 1.7% [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs has decreased by 0.3% to 127.9 kg, and the price of 15 kg piglets has dropped by 2.2% to 19.55 CNY/kg [20][22] - Self-breeding and self-raising profitability has improved, with average losses of -185.68 CNY per head for self-breeding, and -289.07 CNY for purchased piglets [17][18] Poultry - The price of broiler chicks has increased by 0.9% to 3.32 CNY each, while the average price of white feather chickens is 6.88 CNY/kg, up 0.1% [12][29] - The profit from parent stock chicken breeding is 0.57 CNY per chick, while broiler breeding remains at a loss of -1.76 CNY per chick [35][36] Agricultural Products - The domestic corn price has decreased by 0.6% to 2248.63 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have increased slightly by 0.1% to 3996.84 CNY/ton [45][58] - The report highlights the potential for investment in the agricultural sector due to the anticipated growth from the commercialization of genetically modified crops [12]