牛市中缩量震荡通常有多久？

Core Insights - Historical patterns indicate that during each bull market, when turnover rates approach a certain peak, the market tends to experience fluctuations, often accompanied by a rapid decline in turnover rates [3][11] - The report identifies three stages of volume contraction fluctuations: rapid adjustment phase, strong fluctuation phase, and secondary adjustment phase, with the overall adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index typically ranging from 5% to 10% [3][11][20] Historical Analysis of Volume Contraction in Bull Markets - In the 2005-2007 bull market, three instances of volume contraction occurred after turnover peaks, lasting 1-3 months, with turnover rates reducing to 50% of previous highs, and overall index adjustments between 7% and 15% [4][12] - The 2013-2015 bull market saw two shorter instances of volume contraction, lasting from 1 week to 1 month, with turnover rates dropping to 33%-50% of previous highs, and index adjustments not exceeding 10% [4][14] - The 2019-2021 bull market experienced four instances of volume contraction lasting 2-4 months, with turnover rates reducing to 33%-50% of previous highs, and index adjustments between 6% and 15% [4][15] Current Market Conditions - The current market has entered a phase of volume contraction since September, with indications that this phase may be nearing its end, as the overall index remains strong without significant declines [16][20] - The report suggests that the core foundations of the current bull market are stable, driven by regulatory policies and a shift in resident asset allocation, which are more significant than short-term profit changes [20][23] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the index is likely to enter a major upward phase in November and December, driven by policy catalysts and an increase in resident capital inflows [20][23] - The report highlights potential sector rotations, with a focus on low-value sectors, and suggests that banks may benefit from this rotation [23][26]