石油石化行业周报：周内油价震荡走强-20251026

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [5] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have shown a strong upward trend due to geopolitical risks, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices closing at $61.50 and $65.94 per barrel respectively, reflecting weekly increases of +6.88% and +7.59% [1] - The international oil market is facing increasing supply pressure as OPEC+ has accelerated its production increase plan, with a projected supply of 34.69 million barrels per day, the highest since December 2018 [2] - Demand is entering a seasonal low, with both EIA and IEA predicting that supply growth will outpace demand growth, leading to a forecasted Brent crude oil price of $62 and $52 per barrel for Q4 2025 and 2026 respectively [3] Supply Summary - OPEC+ has entered a second phase of production increase, adding 1.66 million barrels per day, which will continue to exert supply pressure [2] - Non-OPEC+ countries are also expected to increase production significantly, with the IEA forecasting an additional 1.6 million barrels per day by 2025/2026 [2] Demand Summary - The EIA and IEA have both adjusted their demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, indicating that demand growth will be lower than supply growth, with EIA predicting a demand increase of 1.1 million barrels per day [3] Price Support Analysis - The average breakeven price for new wells developed by U.S. oil and gas companies is approximately $65 per barrel, with large companies having a breakeven price of around $61 per barrel [4] - A significant portion of U.S. oil executives believe that if WTI prices remain at $60 per barrel, production will slightly decrease, and at $50 per barrel, production will significantly decline [4]