Soochow Securities·2025-10-26 08:17Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure, particularly in the North American market, which continues to struggle [1] - The company has seen a decline in revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 due to the unstable recovery of the North American semi-trailer market [1] - Despite current challenges, the company is expected to maintain high dividends in 2025 and is positioned for a potential recovery in 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023, total revenue is projected at 25,087 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.21% - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 2,455.67 million RMB, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 119.66% - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.31 RMB, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.28 [1] Quarterly Performance Summary - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 5.26 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6% - The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q3 2025 was 219 million RMB, showing a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% [8] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 15.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [8] Market and Regional Insights - The company produced 82,000 semi-trailers in the first three quarters of 2025, generating revenue of 10.69 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 16.8% - In China, the company saw a 16.5% year-on-year increase in semi-trailer and liquid tank truck sales, with a market share of 23.07% [8] - The North American market remains weak, with a 20.1% year-on-year decline in semi-trailer production [8] Future Earnings Forecast - The company's earnings forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been revised down to 925.12 million RMB and 1,339.20 million RMB, respectively - The projected EPS for 2025 is 0.49 RMB, with a P/E ratio of 19.33 [1]