Tianfeng Securities·2025-10-26 08:12Industry Rating - The industry rating for the electrolytic aluminum sector is maintained at "Outperform" [1] Core Viewpoints - The electrolytic aluminum sector is characterized by a perfect blend of resilience and dividend value, indicating a revaluation process is underway [1][3] - The sector's average dividend yield is projected to be 6.0% by the end of 2024, ranking it first among major high-dividend industries, with China Hongqiao's yield reaching 13.7% [2][19] - The report emphasizes the transition of the electrolytic aluminum stocks from being viewed as highly cyclical assets to becoming quality scarce assets with both price elasticity and dividend support [9][19] Summary by Sections 1. Current Dividend Yield of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - As of the end of 2024, the weighted average dividend yield for the electrolytic aluminum sector is estimated at 6.0%, leading among high-dividend industries [2][19] - China Hongqiao's dividend yield is notably high at 13.7%, significantly above other industry leaders [20][21] - The overall trend indicates a clear increase in dividend levels across the sector, with many companies raising their dividend guidance for 2025 [24] 2. Sources of Dividend Value Beyond Resilience - The sector's profitability is expected to remain high due to a tightening supply-demand balance, with domestic production capacity nearing its ceiling [6][28] - The report highlights that the capital expenditure peak has passed, leading to improved asset structure and quality within the sector [45][52] - The transition from a focus on scale expansion to quality enhancement is evident, with a clear path for converting high profits into cash flow and shareholder returns [6][39] 3. Will the Valuation of the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector Increase? - Historical comparisons with coal and China Hongqiao suggest that the market is willing to assign higher valuations to dividend-paying assets, recognizing their asset quality and stable cash flows [4] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for leading companies in high-dividend sectors have shown significant improvement since 2023, indicating potential for further valuation increases [4][19] - The overall trend in the sector shows a marked increase in dividend payout ratios, with several companies indicating higher future dividends [24] 4. Stock Selection in the Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The report recommends focusing on high-dividend companies such as China Hongqiao and Zhongfu Industrial, as well as those with increasing dividend potential like China Aluminum and Shenhuo [5] - The sector is viewed as a combination of offensive aluminum price exposure and defensive dividend asset characteristics, suggesting a favorable investment outlook [5][9]