美国资产风险或在加剧：产业经济周观点-20251026

Group 1 - The report indicates that the US economy may oscillate between recession and stagflation, with potential fluctuations in trade barriers between the US and China [2] - It suggests that trade tensions between China and the US are unlikely to ease quickly, and if China adopts a tougher stance, the risks associated with US assets may increase [2] - The Chinese market is expected to return to low volatility pricing, with a mid-term focus on value, oscillating between risk aversion and pro-cyclical strategies [2] Group 2 - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook for sectors such as insurance, non-ferrous metals, energy, advanced technology internet, military trade, and industries combating "involution" [2] - In the short term, it recommends reducing growth-style holdings further [2] Group 3 - The report highlights that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September was weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, compared to an expected 3.1% and a previous value of 2.9% [7] - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3%, matching the previous value but below expectations [7] Group 4 - The Hong Kong stock market saw significant rebounds, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.62%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 3.91%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index by 5.2% [8] - The A-share market also experienced a recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 2.88% and the ChiNext Index leading the gains [12][27] Group 5 - The report notes that the technology and advanced manufacturing sectors led the gains in the industry, with technology rising by 7.47% and advanced manufacturing by 4.1% [27] - Within the technology sector, hardware sub-industries outperformed, particularly in communication equipment and electronic components [27]