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地产及物管行业周报:五中全会审议通过十五五规划,要求推动房地产高质量发展-20251026
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-26 08:42

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3][40]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the potential of the "Good House" policy to create new pathways for recovery in core cities, leading to a resurgence in leading companies and the opening of new development avenues [3][40]. - It highlights the ongoing monetary easing cycle in China, which is expected to enhance the value of quality commercial real estate [3][40]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of October 18-24, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.566 million square meters, a decrease of 1.9% week-on-week [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new housing transactions in October showed a decline of 23% across 34 cities [3][6]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 cities totaled 1.155 million square meters, down 6.1% from the previous week [3][12]. - Cumulatively, second-hand housing transactions in October were down 20.1% year-on-year [3][12]. Inventory and Sales - The report notes that 15 cities had a total of 710,000 square meters of new housing launched, with a sales-to-launch ratio of 1.48 times [3][21]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.75 million square meters, reflecting a 0.4% decrease [3][21]. Policy and News Tracking Macro Policies - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session called for promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector [3][30]. - National statistics revealed a 13.9% year-on-year decline in real estate investment for the first three quarters of 2025, totaling 677.06 billion yuan [3][30]. Company Dynamics - Major state-owned enterprises remain active in financing, with Poly Developments reporting a new guarantee of 41.03 billion yuan for 2025 [3][36]. - China Overseas Development achieved sales of 7.56 million square meters, down 1%, with a revenue of 170.5 billion yuan, down 14% [3][36]. Sector Performance Review - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 1.51%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, which increased by 3.24% [3][40]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including China Resources Land, Longfor Group, and Poly Developments, among others [3][40].