Changjiang Securities·2025-10-26 08:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - The report highlights that cost optimization is leading the thermal power operations, with a strong outlook for performance in both hydropower and renewable energy sectors [5][13]. - In Q3, the company's coal-fired power generation decreased slightly by 0.50% year-on-year, while gas-fired generation fell by 2.17%. The average on-grid electricity price was RMB 0.409 per kWh, down approximately RMB 0.021 per kWh year-on-year. However, the significant drop in coal prices, which decreased by 175.63 RMB per ton year-on-year, is expected to improve the company's thermal power operations [5][13]. - Hydropower generation increased by 11.71% year-on-year in Q3, while wind and solar power generation grew by 23.08% and 40.06%, respectively. The simultaneous improvement in both thermal and clean energy sectors contributes to an optimistic performance outlook for Q3 [5][13]. Summary by Sections Company Performance - As of September 30, 2025, the company completed approximately 206.24 billion kWh of on-grid electricity, a year-on-year increase of 2.02%. The average on-grid electricity price was RMB 430.19 per MWh, down about 4.32% year-on-year [5][13]. - In Q3, the company generated 555.34 billion kWh from coal-fired units, a slight decrease of 0.50% year-on-year, and 61.83 billion kWh from gas-fired units, down 2.17% year-on-year. The stability in thermal power generation is attributed to equipment expansion and favorable regional supply-demand dynamics [5][13]. Cost and Pricing - The report indicates that despite a slight increase in coal prices in Q3 due to seasonal demand, the average coal price remains significantly lower than the previous year, which positively impacts the company's cost structure [5][13]. - The Q3 average coal price at Qinhuangdao port was 672.46 RMB per ton, down 175.63 RMB per ton year-on-year, contributing to a favorable cost environment for the company [5][13]. Clean Energy Growth - The company has seen robust growth in clean energy generation, with hydropower output reaching 138.78 billion kWh in Q3, up 11.71% year-on-year. Wind and solar power generation also showed strong growth, with respective increases of 23.08% and 40.06% in Q3 [5][13]. - The company continues to expand its renewable energy capacity, with wind and solar installations reaching 10.34 million kW and 6.49 million kW, respectively, by the end of September 2025 [5][13]. Profit Forecast - The report adjusts the profit forecast, estimating EPS for 2025-2027 to be 0.35 RMB, 0.37 RMB, and 0.39 RMB, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.51x, 9.82x, and 9.29x [5][13].