ZHONGTAI SECURITIES·2025-10-26 08:42Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [4][9]. Core Views - The company has shown a continuous optimization of costs, leading to a quarter-on-quarter performance improvement despite a year-on-year decline in revenue and profit [5][6]. - The report highlights a significant rebound in coal prices and an adjustment in performance forecasts for 2025-2027, with projected revenues of 320.89 billion, 324.81 billion, and 326.23 billion yuan respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 213.15 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.05 billion yuan, down 10.0% year-on-year [6]. - For Q3 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 75.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 13.1% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.51% [6]. Coal Business - The company’s coal production for the first three quarters was 25.09 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.4% year-on-year, while coal sales were 31.65 million tons, down 8.4% year-on-year [6]. - The average selling price of coal in the first three quarters was 487.0 yuan per ton, a decrease of 13.7% year-on-year [6]. Power Generation - The company generated 162.87 billion kWh of electricity in the first three quarters, a decrease of 4.9% year-on-year, with a sales price of 382.0 yuan per MWh, down 4.7% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a sales volume of 59.29 billion kWh, with a unit cost of 297.1 yuan per MWh, down 14.5% year-on-year [7]. Transportation and Shipping - The railway segment reported revenue of 32.71 billion yuan in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.77%, with a total profit of 3.27 billion yuan [7]. - The shipping segment saw a revenue increase of 49.25% year-on-year in the first three quarters, although profits decreased by 50.15% [7]. Chemical Business - The coal chemical segment reported revenue of 4.35 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 6.15%, with a profit of 0.10 billion yuan [7]. - In Q3 2025, the revenue from coal chemicals was 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.26% year-on-year [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report adjusts the earnings forecast upwards due to the recent rebound in coal prices, projecting net profits of 50.15 billion, 51.07 billion, and 52.41 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8]. - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 16.8X, 16.5X, and 16.1X for the respective years [8].