美国CPI不及预期，美元短期震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economy still shows some resilience, with inflation generally under control and the market fully pricing in expectations of a 25bp rate cut in the October meeting and two more rate cuts within the year. The Fed's stance on the pace of balance sheet reduction in the October meeting needs attention. The impact of the government shutdown is expected to be reflected in November data, and tariff issues also pressure business confidence. The short - term trend of the US dollar is oscillatory, while gold is weak in the short - term but the long - term bullish market expectation remains unchanged. Brent crude oil prices have risen due to supply - side concerns [2][11][32] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields increased, and the US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, most non - US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB slightly rose 0.1%, the euro fell 0.23%, the pound fell 0.87%, the yen fell 1.49%, the Swiss franc fell 0.3%, the Korean won fell 1.2%, the Thai baht, peso, and rupee closed down, while the New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar closed up. Gold prices fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.37, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.5 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.92%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 3.61%. The US government shutdown has affected the economy and employment, and the release of economic data. The September CPI data was slightly lower than expected. The US manufacturing and service PMI rebounded in October, but manufacturing employment continued to decline. The eurozone's manufacturing and service PMI also rebounded. China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, and the domestic stock market continued to fluctuate [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. Due to the government shutdown and lower - than - expected CPI, the US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level with limited downside. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rebounded to 1.85%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly decreased to 215bp, and the domestic bond market fell again [13][17][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, and most non - US currencies depreciated [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, with short - term weakness but unchanged long - term bullish expectations. The VIX index dropped to 16.37. Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.4 per barrel due to supply - side concerns, and the industrial products were weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [29][31][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US September CPI was lower than expected, which confirmed the expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, boosting market risk appetite. The short - term possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low, and the outcome of the Sino - US trade negotiation is expected to maintain the status quo [33][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Sino - US trade negotiation, US President's visit to Japan; Tuesday: US August housing price index, October Conference Board consumer confidence; Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate meeting resolution; Thursday: Fed interest rate meeting resolution, Bank of Japan interest rate meeting resolution, European Central Bank interest rate meeting resolution, US Q3 GDP; Friday: China's October manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's October CPI [37]