KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-10-26 09:19Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that thermal coal prices have reached a significant threshold of 750 CNY per ton and are currently experiencing an upward trend, with expectations to reach a target price range of 800-860 CNY per ton [5][6] - The increase in thermal coal prices is attributed to a combination of supply contraction due to strict production checks and a surge in demand driven by heating needs during the northern cold wave [5] - Coking coal prices have also rebounded significantly, with the price at Jing Tang Port reaching 1760 CNY per ton, up from 1230 CNY per ton in early July, marking a cumulative increase of 73.5% [5][6] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal is categorized as a policy-driven commodity, and its price recovery is expected to follow a four-step process: restoring central and local long-term contracts, achieving the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and moving towards the breakeven point for power plants [6][15] - The ideal target for coal price recovery is around 750 CNY per ton, with an anticipated upward movement towards the breakeven line of 860 CNY [6][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market supply and demand dynamics, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [6][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. The cyclical logic is supported by the current low prices of thermal and coking coal, which have room for rebound [7][16] - Four main lines for stock selection are proposed: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin Kong Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Mining 2. Dividend logic: China Shenhua, China Coal Energy 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: Shenhua Holdings, Electric Power Investment 4. Growth logic: Xinji Energy, Guanghui Energy [7][16] Key Market Indicators - As of October 24, 2025, the price of Qin Port Q5500 thermal coal is 770 CNY per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.94% [19] - The average PE ratio for the coal sector is 14.82, and the PB ratio is 1.38, indicating the sector's valuation relative to the broader market [25][28]