全球资产配置每周聚焦（20251017-20251024）：TACO交易再起，全球权益上涨贵金属回调-20251026

Market Overview - The global capital markets saw most equity assets rise this week, driven by expectations of a "Trump softening" in trade negotiations, despite Trump's announcement of a 155% tariff on China[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield remained stable at 4.02%, while the US dollar index increased by 0.39% to 98.9, staying below 100[3][10] - A-share indices all rose, with notable gains in the ChiNext and STAR Market, while global markets, except for Vietnam's Ho Chi Minh index, also experienced increases[3][8] Fund Flows - In the week ending October 23, 2025, both domestic and foreign capital flowed out of the Chinese stock market, with foreign active funds seeing a net outflow of $1.52 million and passive funds $3.67 million[3][16] - The US market saw significant inflows, with equity funds gaining $12.29 billion and fixed income funds $11.17 billion during the same period[3][16] Valuation Metrics - The Shanghai Composite Index's PE ratio is at the 92.1% historical percentile, second only to the S&P 500, indicating relatively high valuation compared to European markets[3][15] - Risk-adjusted returns for the Shanghai Composite increased from the 69th to the 75th percentile, suggesting better allocation value in the Chinese market compared to global peers[3][15] Economic Data - The US September CPI recorded a 3% increase, slightly below the expected 3.1%, while China's Q3 GDP growth was reported at 4.8%, on track to meet the annual target of 5%[3][5] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October is at 98.3%, slightly down from the previous week[3][5] Risk Indicators - The implied volatility for the S&P 500 has weakened, with the put-call ratio remaining stable at 1.07, indicating cautious market sentiment[3][5] - The A-share options market showed a reduction in positions across various strike prices, reflecting a cautious approach among investors[3][5]