投资策略周报：重回“慢牛”趋势，全球科技AI行情共震-20251026

Market Review - Recent positive developments in China-US trade negotiations, the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee have boosted global risk appetite, leading to a rally in Chinese stocks. The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3950 points, marking a new high in this bull market, with significant gains in A and H shares in the technology growth sector. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.2%, while the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index increased by 8.0% and 7.3% respectively. A-shares saw a trading volume rebound to around 2 trillion yuan, indicating a positive market sentiment driven by policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session [1][2][4]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a return to a "slow bull" trend, with a focus on the global technology and AI sectors. The Fourth Plenary Session solidified long-term policy expectations for investors, alongside expectations of US-China interactions at the APEC summit and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The A-share market is expected to maintain its "slow bull" trend, with "big technology" remaining a key focus for the medium to long term. Upcoming earnings reports from A-share companies and major US tech firms will be critical, particularly in the context of the accelerating global AI arms race [2][4]. Industry Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on "big technology" in industry allocation, particularly in areas such as AI computing and applications, robotics, high-end equipment manufacturing (including semiconductor supply chains, solid-state batteries, energy storage, and aerospace), new materials, and future industries. The theme of "mergers and acquisitions" is also highlighted as a point of interest [2][4]. Economic Policy Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee has incorporated "maintaining economic development as the central task" into the five-year plan, suggesting a target for medium-high economic growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. While no specific quantitative growth targets were set, the implicit goal is to achieve a growth rate of no less than 4.5%-5%. The meeting emphasized the need to achieve this year's economic and social development goals, indicating that the pressure to reach a 5% growth rate is manageable [4]. Technological Development Goals - The report indicates that the 14th Five-Year Plan will set higher requirements for technological self-sufficiency, with upcoming documents expected to provide more specific policy directions. The focus will be on breakthrough innovations in key core technologies, with priority given to emerging industries such as new energy, new materials, aerospace, and low-altitude economy, as well as future industries like quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, and brain-computer interfaces [4].