策略周末谈（1026）：战略反攻

Group 1 - Global capital is hesitant, indicating a "noise" before a major market rebound, with A-shares returning to a defensive style focused on dividends and micro-cap stocks [1][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has shifted its strategic focus from "technological innovation" to "supply chain enhancement," ensuring supply chain security and high-end manufacturing autonomy [2][18] - The emphasis on domestic consumption has upgraded from "comprehensive promotion of consumption" to "strongly boosting consumption," reflecting a stronger policy commitment [2][18] Group 2 - Cross-border capital is significantly returning, which is a crucial material guarantee for the "15th Five-Year Plan" strategy and the macro engine for China's asset revival [3][20] - The return of cross-border capital is expected to fundamentally improve cash flow for enterprises and households, providing a material basis for boosting consumption and supporting manufacturing [3][20] Group 3 - China is adopting a steady path, focusing on solidifying competitive advantages through capital expenditure expansion and policy adjustments, while the U.S. faces challenges due to premature and excessive investment in AI infrastructure [4][23] - The U.S. is experiencing a "Ponzi-like" dilemma, where high unit costs of AI infrastructure hinder commercialization, potentially leading to a significant economic crisis [4][23] Group 4 - The report suggests a strategic layout for the "golden era" of Chinese assets, emphasizing a combination of sectors that are expected to reach new highs, including non-ferrous metals, new consumption, and high-end manufacturing [5][26] - The anticipated "ice-fire conversion" moment for manufacturing and consumption assets is supported by the return of cross-border capital and the strategic shift in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [5][26]