四中全会提振科技产业预期

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Shock" rating for the stock index [4] Core View of the Report - This week, global stock markets strengthened, especially the Chinese stock market. Two factors boosted the market: the upcoming Sino-US trade and tariff negotiations in Malaysia, which alleviated concerns about the escalation of trade frictions; and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, whose top-level planning for the technology industry fit the market's imagination of technology stocks and maintained the medium - and long - term technology narrative. However, the rapid shrinkage of A - share trading volume has made liquidity the primary concern. If the trading volume continues to shrink, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support. If the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro - events and themes [2][10] Summary by Relevant Directory 1. One - Week View and Macro Key Event Overview Next Week's View - Focus on the sustainability of the shrinkage of trading volume. Consider whether the Sino - US tariff negotiations and the stock market liquidity will continue to shrink [2][10] This Week's Key Event Concerns - On October 20: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held; the GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year; the 10 - month LPR remained unchanged; the new policy - based financial instruments of the National Development and Reform Commission had invested 1893.5 billion yuan; in September, China's soybean imports shifted from the US to South American countries [11][12][13][14][15] - On October 21: The trust management scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan [16] - On October 22: The unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 - year - old labor force was 17.7%; Shenzhen released a mergers and acquisitions and restructuring plan [17][18] - On October 23: China and the US will hold talks in Malaysia from the 24th to the 27th; the main goals of the "15th Five - Year Plan" were announced [19][20] - On October 24: Chinese national leaders will visit South Korea from the 30th to the 31st [22] 2. One - Week Market Quotes Overview Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From 10/20 - 10/24, the global stock market denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index rose 1.77%, with emerging markets (+2.04%) > developed markets (+1.74%) > frontier markets (+0.33%). The Chinese stock market rose 3.95%, leading the world, while the Swiss stock market fell 0.64%, performing the worst globally [23] Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From 10/20 - 10/24, Chinese equity assets rose significantly. In terms of different markets, A - shares > Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 1797.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week (2193.1 billion yuan). All A - share sectors rose, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% (the best performance) and the Beixin 50 rising 2.74% (the worst performance) [26] Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most global GICS primary industries rose this week. The leading industry was energy (+2.84%), and the underperforming industry was consumer staples (-0.83%). In the Chinese market, information technology led the rise (+7.72%), and consumer staples lagged (-0.93%) [30] Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 27 rose (4 last week) and 3 fell (26 last week). The leading industry was communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry was agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%) [33] Weekly Overview of China A - Share Styles: Large - Cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth outperformed value, and the market - capitalization style was biased towards large - cap stocks [37] Futures Basis Overview - The report provides the basis data of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months [38][40] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview Broad - Based Index Valuation - The report shows the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple broad - based indexes such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. [45] Primary Industry Valuation - The report presents the PE, eight - year percentile, PE at the beginning of the year, PE change during the year, PB, eight - year percentile, PB at the beginning of the year, and PB change during the year of multiple primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. [46] Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 decreased slightly this week [47][52] Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Rate - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.82%, and in 2026 to 8.58%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was lowered to 31.24%, and in 2026 was raised to 18.10%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was lowered to 36.12%, and in 2026 was raised to 20.97% [53] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year yield and the 1 - year yield both rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 98.9, and the offshore RMB was 7.12 [60] Trading - Type Fund Tracking - This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds decreased by 35.4 billion yuan compared with last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 21.1 billion yuan [64] Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There were 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 180 million, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 decreased by 60 million, and the share of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 1.9 billion [67][68][70] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Supply Side: Crude Steel Output Contracted - The report shows data on the national blast furnace operating rate (247 enterprises), the national coking enterprise operating rate (100 enterprises), domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate [74][79] Consumption Side: Real Estate Transactions Remained Sluggish - The report provides data on the transaction area of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 key cities, the land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, the listing volume and listing price of second - hand housing nationwide, the year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales, and the recovery of crude oil prices to around $67 per barrel [84][86][88] Inflation Observation: Agricultural Product Prices Rebounded - The report shows that the recovery of production material prices was weak, agricultural product prices continued to recover, and presents the weekly change rate of the commodity index [94][97]