矿端紧张叠加流动性宽松，铜价上行突破

Investment Rating - Maintain "Buy" rating for the sector [5] Core Views - The report indicates that the precious metals market is expected to maintain a bullish trend in the medium to long term due to inflationary pressures and global liquidity easing, despite recent price corrections [1][34] - For industrial metals, copper prices are supported by tight supply conditions and liquidity easing, while aluminum prices are expected to show strong fluctuations due to overseas production cuts and geopolitical tensions [2][3] - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are projected to see strong price performance driven by positive demand expectations, while cobalt prices are also on an upward trend despite cautious purchasing strategies from downstream buyers [3][25] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. September CPI recorded at 3%, lower than the expected 3.1%, indicating a potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][34] - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. has declined to 53.6, reflecting weak economic fundamentals [1][34] - The report suggests that the recent pullback in gold prices is considered sufficient, and long-term bullish trends remain intact [1][34] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are supported by tight supply due to disruptions in mining and easing liquidity conditions [2] - Global copper inventory increased by 19,400 tons, with Chinese inventory rising by 17,100 tons [2] - The report highlights that the aluminum industry in China is maintaining production levels, while overseas production cuts are expected to support aluminum prices [2] - Nickel demand remains strong, particularly in the battery sector, with prices expected to rise [2] Energy Metals - Lithium prices are showing strong performance, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 5.4% to 80,000 yuan/ton [3][25] - Cobalt prices are also on the rise, supported by strong demand from the ternary material sector, although purchasing strategies are becoming more cautious [3][25] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include: - Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Jilong Gold for precious metals [1] - Luoyang Molybdenum, Nanshan Aluminum, and China Hongqiao for industrial metals [2][8] - Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium for energy metals [3][8]