美通胀放缓与宽松预期升温，美债再获避险与配置双支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Recent US Treasury yields have declined overall, with the "safe-haven + rate cut expectation" resonance strengthening. The core factors driving the rise of US Treasuries are the expectation of looser monetary policy, including Powell's public signal of rate cuts, mild CPI in September, and the decline in housing and oil prices weakening medium - and long - term inflation pressures. Additionally, the deterioration of regional bank loan quality and government shutdown concerns have enhanced the safe - haven property of US Treasuries [1][6]. - Fiscal and supply pressures have eased, and the ultra - long end is relatively favored. The allocation force is concentrating on the long end, and the long - end supply pressure is expected to weaken, further supporting long - end prices. In the short term, US Treasuries are supported by the rate cut path and falling inflation, but there may be fluctuations. In the medium term, US Treasuries still have allocation value and are likely to enter a pattern of low - level oscillation [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US Treasury Interest Rates - As of October 24, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has dropped by 12bp in two weeks to 4.02%. The 2 - year yield has also dropped by 12bp, and the 30 - year yield by 13bp compared to two weeks ago [2]. 2. US Treasury Market - In terms of actual bond issuance in early October, the issuance duration of US Treasuries has slightly increased, with 57.84 billion for 3 - year, 38.92 billion for 10 - year, and 21.96 billion for 30 - year. The US fiscal deficit in December is 86.7 billion US dollars, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit has slightly declined to 2.03 trillion US dollars [2]. 3. Derivatives Market - The net short position in US Treasury futures has slightly declined. As of September 23, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers have dropped to 5.738 million lots. Meanwhile, the federal funds rate futures market remains in a net short position, rising to 395,400 lots [2]. 4. Liquidity and US Economy - Monetary Policy: On September 18, the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first rate cut in nine months this year. The Fed has shown increased concern about the labor market [3]. - Fiscal Policy: As of October 22, the US Treasury TGA deposit balance has increased by 111.02 billion US dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool has shrunk by 1.415 billion US dollars in two weeks, with overall liquidity remaining relatively abundant [3]. - Economic Situation: As of October 18, the Fed's weekly economic indicator is 2.16 (2.44 two weeks ago), indicating that the economy has deteriorated after a short - term stabilization [3].