海外利率周报20251026：通胀低于预期，海外降息预期交易继续-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Inflation is lower than expected, and the trading of overseas interest rate cut expectations continues. The lower-than-expected CPI further strengthens the market's expectation of an interest rate cut next week, but the growth of non-sticky CPI also prompts the market to readjust its expectation of an interest rate cut in December [3][12]. - The overall performance of major overseas markets shows different trends. US Treasury yields generally decline over time as the FOMC meeting approaches, Japanese government bonds rise slightly overall, and German government bond yields have the largest single - week increase in six weeks [3][4][19]. - Global major stock markets generally strengthen, energy in commodities leads the rise while precious metals fall from high levels, and the US dollar is stable while non - US currencies are generally under pressure [5][20][21]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic and Interest Rate Review 1.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - Inflation: In September, the CPI data was lower than expected. The unadjusted CPI year - on - year was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.1% and higher than the previous value of 2.9%; the core CPI year - on - year was 3.0%, lower than the forecast of 3.1% and the previous value of 3.1%. The market responded positively, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 47,000 for the first time, rising 472 points or 1%. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also reached new highs, providing room for an interest rate cut [1][10]. - Real Estate: In September, the annualized total of existing home sales in the US reached a seven - month high, with 4.06 million units, in line with the forecast. Although the decline in mortgage rates may boost home sales, affordability remains a challenge for many potential homebuyers, especially low - and middle - income families, due to unclear economic prospects and reduced employer recruitment under the background of import tariffs [1][10]. - Business Index: As of the week of October 17, US crude oil inventories decreased due to strong refining demand. The EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 961,000 barrels, significantly lower than the expected increase of 2.2 million barrels and the previous value of 3.524 million barrels. Affected by factors such as increased US sanctions on Russia and rising refining demand, crude oil prices soared. The October Markit manufacturing (preliminary) and services PMI (preliminary) were both higher than expected and previous values, with the new order flow growth rate reaching a new high this year. However, due to factors such as tariff concerns, weak export demand, and increased unsold inventory, business confidence has fallen to a three - year low [2][11]. 1.2 Review of Major Overseas Market Interest Rates - US: This week (October 17 - 24, 2025), the yields of US Treasury bonds showed different changes. The overall yield of US Treasury bonds declined as the FOMC meeting approached. Before the release of inflation data, the 10 - year yield rose, and after the CPI was lower than expected, the yield fell and fluctuated around 4.0%. The lower - than - expected CPI strengthens the market's expectation of an interest rate cut next week, but also makes the market readjust its expectation of an interest rate cut in December. As of now, the proportion of the expected target interest rate in December remaining at 375 - 400 has increased from 0% to 8.77%. The price data also reflects the inflation dilemma, and corporate profits continue to be under pressure, making it difficult to reverse the low - growth situation of price growth by the end of the year [3][12][13]. - Auction: On October 22, a $13 billion 20 - year US Treasury bond auction was held. The winning bid rate was 4.506%, the bid - to - cover ratio was 2.73 times, basically the same as the previous value. The tail spread was - 1.150, lower than the previous value. Indirects were allocated 63.6%, Directs 26.3%, and Primary 10.0% [4][14]. - Europe and Japan: Japanese government bond yields rose slightly overall this week, with short - and medium - term yields generally rising and ultra - long - term yields (15 - year and 20 - year) slightly falling. German government bond yields had the largest single - week increase in six weeks [4][19]. 2. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - Equity: Global major stock markets generally strengthened. South Korea's KOSPI led the rise with + 5.14%, followed by the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index with a 3.62% rebound, the Japanese Nikkei 225 with a 3.61% increase, the UK FTSE 100 with a 3.11% increase, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index with a 2.88% increase, the US Nasdaq with a 2.31% increase, the German DAX with a 1.72% increase, the French CAC40 with a 0.63% increase, and India's Sensex with a 0.31% increase. Vietnam's VN30 fell 1.65%, and Russia's MOEX had a - 6.49% decline [5][20]. - Commodities: Energy led the rise, while precious metals fell from high levels. Brent crude oil rose 7.59%, coking coal 5.58%, coke 4.74%, Bitcoin 4.29%, US live hogs 2.84%, LME copper 2.65%, LME aluminum 2.28%, CBOT soybeans 2.18%, CBOT wheat 1.74%, CBOT corn 0.18%, soda ash 1.82%, Zhengzhou cotton 1.61%, and rebar 0.43%. London gold fell 2.85% and London silver fell 11.27% [5][21]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar was stable, and non - US currencies were generally under pressure. The Indian rupee rose 0.22%, the Vietnamese dong appreciated 0.04%, the US dollar against the Chinese yuan rose slightly by 0.02%, the Hong Kong dollar fell 0.04%, the euro fell 0.84%, the Swiss franc fell 0.85%, the British pound fell 1.00%, the South Korean won fell 1.03%, the Russian ruble fell 1.52%, and the Japanese yen fell 1.63% [5][22][23]. 3. Market Tracking - The report provides multiple charts to show the changes in various indicators this week, including the yield changes of major economies' government bonds, the rise and fall of major global stock indices, the rise and fall of major commodities, the rise and fall of major global foreign exchange rates, and the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the eurozone [28][32][35].