宏观量化经济指数周报20251026：四季度供需分化格局仍将对物价造成影响-20251026

Supply and Demand Analysis - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.02%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week, while the demand index remains stable at 49.91%[6] - For October, the supply index is at 50.00%, down 0.03 percentage points from September, indicating a stronger supply side compared to demand[7] - The ECI investment index is at 49.90%, unchanged from last week, while the consumption index is at 49.73%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] Economic Indicators - The average wholesale price of pork has decreased by 27.1% year-on-year as of October 24, maintaining a similar decline as in September[7] - The export index for October shows a slight decline but remains resilient, with the cumulative cargo throughput at ports showing a slowdown compared to September[7] - The ELI index is at -0.66%, down 0.06 percentage points from last week, indicating liquidity pressure as the month-end tax period approaches[11] Consumer and Investment Trends - New energy vehicle retail sales are showing marginal recovery, driven by tax incentives set to reduce in 2026[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars recorded 63,163 units in the week ending October 19, a slight increase from the previous year[23] - Infrastructure investment shows stability, with the asphalt plant operating rate at 35.80%, up 1.30 percentage points from the previous week[29] Price and Inflation Outlook - The Brent crude oil futures price is at $63.37 per barrel, up $1.38 from the previous week, while COMEX gold futures are at $4,163.46 per ounce, down $39.72[41] - The average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 5.22 yuan per kilogram, up 0.21 yuan from the previous week[41]