纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20251026

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, the prices of pure benzene and styrene will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the incremental demand brought by the easing of the trade war [3][98]. - The empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid rebound of crude oil prices at a low level drives the upward repair of chemical valuations. In October, due to overseas sanctions, some domestic major refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly production loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene. The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have turned into destocking expectations [3][98]. - The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S hard rubber has entered a negative feedback stage. The terminal downstream demand has not improved yet [3][98]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to about 30,000 - 50,000 tons. New production capacity of 56,000 tons was put into operation in September, and 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively [3][98]. - Imports: The September import is expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and the import expectation will increase in the fourth quarter. The import in October is expected to be 500,000 tons, and high - level imports are expected from November to December [3][98]. - Demand - Caprolactam: CPL operation is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][98]. - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][98]. - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][98]. - Valuation - The reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton based on the crude oil price of $60 per barrel [3][98]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Stop empty orders for profit [3][98]. - Inter - period: None [3][98]. - Inter - variety: None [3][98]. Styrene - Supply - In September, the concentrated maintenance was 79,000 tons, mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining and Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. New production capacity is expected to be put into operation in November by Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical, with an average monthly incremental output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][98]. - Demand - The downstream 3S hard rubber is in a negative feedback stage, with high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season, showing overall weakness [3][98]. - Valuation - The EB processing fee will expand profits in the short - term, but the space is limited, mainly fluctuating [3][98]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Stop empty orders for profit [3][98]. - Inter - period: None [3][98]. - Inter - variety: None [3][98].