广东2026年电力交易提振电价预期，关注可控核聚变

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electricity sector [3]. Core Views - The electricity trading mechanism in Guangdong for 2026 is expected to boost electricity price expectations, with a focus on controllable nuclear fusion [1][9]. - Thermal power performance in Q3 is anticipated to improve due to a rebound in coal prices, enhancing the expectation of stable electricity prices [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of energy storage policies and the value of flexible power sources, suggesting a focus on the thermal power sector and undervalued green electricity stocks [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,950.31 points, up 2.88%, while the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,660.68 points, up 3.24%. The CITIC Power and Utilities Index closed at 3,146.78 points, up 1.13%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 2.11 percentage points [1][54]. Key Insights - The Guangdong 2026 electricity trading mechanism has been released, maintaining the trading benchmark price and floating range, while canceling the variable cost compensation mechanism for nuclear power. The market will expand to include all renewable energy sources [9]. - The benchmark price for coal-fired electricity is set at 0.453 CNY/kWh, with a floating range of 20%, leading to a projected annual trading price range of 0.372 to 0.554 CNY/kWh for 2026 [9]. - The report highlights the expected increase in capacity price to 165 CNY/kW/year, which may offset lower trading prices [9]. Thermal Power - Coal prices have rebounded to 770 CNY/ton, which is expected to support the thermal power sector [10]. - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Huaneng International, Huadian International, and others in the thermal power sector due to their potential for performance improvement [2][6]. Hydropower - The inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir have significantly increased, with inflow rising by 91.86% and outflow by 70.24% compared to the previous year [32]. Green Energy - The report notes that silicon material prices remain stable, with mainstream silicon wafer prices also unchanged, indicating potential for improved returns on photovoltaic projects in the long term [42]. Carbon Market - The national carbon market saw a price increase of 4.77% this week, with a closing price of 54.70 CNY/ton, reflecting a growing interest in carbon trading [52].