金银周报-20251026

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment, and silver has seen a rapid price decline as the spot contradiction eases. The gold - silver ratio has risen from 78.6 to 85.6, mainly due to the sharp drop in silver prices. The first target for silver's downward movement is $47.5, and the second is $43 - 44. Gold needs a monthly - level price adjustment, but its bottom support is stronger than silver's [3]. - The US economic outlook is complex. Although the real demand is not weak, the expectations are affected by policies. The US government shutdown has continued for four weeks, and 10 - month hard data may be missing. Soft data shows an improvement in October's Markit manufacturing, services, and composite PMIs compared to September, with the new orders composite index reaching its highest level this year. However, the manufacturing employment index has dropped to a three - month low [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 fell to - $15.345 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - $22.7 per ounce [9]. - The spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 rose to $0.2135 per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - $0.27 per ounce [12]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - This week, the gold spot - futures price spread was - 2.77 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [16]. - The silver spot - futures price spread was - 15 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [19]. 3.1.3 Monthly Spread - This week, the gold monthly spread was 7.12 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [23]. - The silver monthly spread was 46 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [27]. 3.1.4 Cross - Month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - For gold, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 4.20 yuan per gram, and the cost of buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract was 15.69 yuan per gram [30][31]. - For silver, the total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 50.54 yuan per kilogram, and the cost of buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract was 178.05 yuan per kilogram [32][33]. 3.1.5 Deferred Fee Payment Direction - This week, the gold exchange's deferred fee for gold was mainly paid by longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power. The same was true for silver [34]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.23 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 51.3%. COMEX silver inventory decreased by 389 tons to 15,456 tons, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 33.7%. Gold futures inventory increased by 2.41 tons, and silver futures inventory decreased by 255 tons to 664 tons [36][38][41]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - Commercial Position - This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold increased slightly, while that of silver decreased slightly [43]. 3.1.8 ETF Position - This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory increased by 12.31 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory increased by 77.59 tons [49][51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio - This week, the gold - silver ratio fell from 78.6 to 85.6 [54]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rate - This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.13%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 13.86% [57]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rate - This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rate recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [62]. 3.2.2 Inflation and Retail Sales Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [67] 3.2.3 Non - Farm Employment Performance - Not summarized in detail as only relevant charts are provided without specific text analysis [70] 3.2.4 Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [75] 3.2.5 Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index - Not summarized in detail as only relevant titles are provided without specific content [77] 3.2.6 Fed Rate - Cut Probability - Not summarized in detail as only a title is provided without specific content [79]