A股策略周报：关注“十五五”产业指引和三季报景气信号-20251026

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a rebound, with the technology sector regaining momentum, driven by improved risk appetite due to easing geopolitical tensions and favorable U.S. inflation data [2][16] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" development goals were clarified during the Fourth Plenary Session, emphasizing technological self-reliance and the cultivation of emerging industries [2][6] - The report suggests focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors, industries benefiting from policy support, and consumer sectors with low valuations [2][16] Recent Economic Data - The GDP growth rate for Q3 was reported at 4.8%, a decrease from 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, indicating a marginal slowdown in economic growth [3][4] - Industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5% in September, with high-tech industries growing at 10.3% [3][4] - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.0% in September, reflecting the diminishing effects of the "trade-in" policy [3][4] Policy Tracking - The Fourth Plenary Session outlined major goals for the "14th Five-Year Plan," including significant improvements in high-quality development and technological self-reliance [6][7] - The session emphasized the importance of addressing rural issues and promoting urban-rural integration, with an estimated market space of around 10 trillion yuan over the next five years [6][7] - Financial policies will focus on maintaining stability in capital markets and enhancing the resilience of the financial system [6][7] Market Performance - The A-share market saw significant gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 2.9% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 8.0% [2][16] - Among 31 sectors, 28 reported positive returns, with telecommunications, electronics, and power equipment sectors leading the gains [2][16] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market decreased to 1.8 trillion yuan, a drop of 18.04% from the previous week [2][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from both domestic and external demand, particularly in technology and traditional cyclical industries [2][16] - It also highlights the potential for improvement in sectors driven by policy support and those currently undervalued in the consumer space [2][16] - The report notes the importance of monitoring the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" guidelines and quarterly earnings reports for further investment insights [20]