黑色分析师：李亚飞投资咨询号：Z0021184日期：2025年10月26日

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the off - season, focus on expectations and look for opportunities for steel price rebounds. The overseas macro situation shows that the inflation in the US declined more than expected in September, which lifted the valuation of pro - cyclical commodities. Domestically, manufacturing and infrastructure investment decreased due to the "anti - involution" policy. To avoid deflation, long - term demand - side measures are needed. After the Fourth Plenary Session, domestic trading shifted back to the "anti - involution" theme. In the black industry chain, the peak - season demand was weak. To maintain inventory levels, supply reduction through price drops and profit compression is necessary. Attention should be paid to the reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - economic Situation 3.1.1 Overseas Macro - US inflation in September declined more than expected, leading to an increase in the valuation of pro - cyclical commodities [3][8]. 3.1.2 Domestic Macro - Manufacturing and infrastructure investment were affected by the "anti - involution" policy, showing a downward trend. After the Fourth Plenary Session, domestic trading shifted back to the "anti - involution" theme. To get the economy out of the deflation spiral, long - term demand - side efforts are required [3][7]. 3.2 Black Industry Chain - The industry logic is dominated by negative feedback. Attention should be paid to the reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces as scrap steel used in electric arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, and valley - electricity operations are in the loss state [3][11]. 3.3 Threaded Steel Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Basis and Spread of Threaded Steel - Last week, the Shanghai threaded steel spot price was 3200 (0) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3046 (+9) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 154 (- 9) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 63 (- 7) yuan/ton [17]. 3.3.2 Threaded Steel Demand - Second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand. However, new - housing transactions remained low, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remained low [21]. - Threaded steel demand seasonally increased but was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [22]. 3.3.3 MS Weekly Data - Supply was at a low level, demand increased, and the inventory level was healthy [23]. 3.3.4 Scrap Steel and Electric Arc Furnace - Scrap steel is still a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [31]. 3.3.5 Threaded Steel Production Profit - Last week, the threaded steel spot profit was 84 (0) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 62 (- 29) yuan/ton, and the East China threaded steel valley - electricity profit was 47 (+11) yuan/ton [37]. 3.4 Hot - rolled Coil Fundamental Data 3.4.1 Basis and Spread of Hot - rolled Coil - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3250 (+46) yuan/ton. The 01 - contract basis was 40 (- 26) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was - 15 (+5) yuan/ton [42]. 3.4.2 Hot - rolled Coil Demand - The peak - season demand for hot - rolled coils was weak as the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries were not good. However, export profit opportunities emerged, and exports remained at a high level [43][45]. 3.4.3 MS Weekly Data - Demand increased, and inventory decreased [48]. 3.4.4 Hot - rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 7 (+14) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 116 (+8) yuan/ton [53]. 3.5 Variety Spread Structure - Pay attention to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate hot - rolled coil spread [54]. 3.6 Variety Regional Difference - Information on regional price differences of threaded steel, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc. was provided, including the price differences between different regions such as Hangzhou - Beijing, Beijing - Guangzhou, and Shanghai - Tianjin [65][66]. 3.7 Cold - rolled Coil and Medium - plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Data on the seasonal total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coils and medium - plates were presented [71].