Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-10-26 11:39Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The iron ore price is under pressure due to the suppression of industrial chain profits and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Although the downward space for downstream steel mill profits is limited and the iron water output has shown a downward inflection point, the strengthening of the coking coal and coke sectors has further eroded the industrial chain profits. However, potential macro - level positive factors may still materialize, so the iron ore price should be treated as fluctuating [3][5]. Summary by Directory Supply - Overseas shipments are relatively high year - on - year. Australian high - frequency shipment data shows both year - on - year and month - on - month increases. The global shipment volume in the recent week was 3333.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 126.0 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 446.2 million tons. Australian shipments were 1915.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 61.6 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 184.0 million tons. Brazilian shipments were 824.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.8 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 95.2 million tons. The shipments of Rio Tinto and Fortescue to China have increased significantly recently [4][5][15]. - Among non - mainstream mines, South African shipments have shown a seasonal decline. The capacity utilization rate of domestic mines in the southwest region has rebounded, bringing the overall operation back to a relatively normal level [20][27]. Demand - The iron water output has shown a downward trend at the inflection point, and the port cargo clearance volume has also declined recently. The iron water output of 247 enterprises was 239.90 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.05 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 5.54 million tons. Recently, the price fluctuations of scrap steel and iron ore have been narrow, and the scrap - iron price difference has basically remained flat [4][29][33]. Inventory - The accumulation speed of port inventory has accelerated. The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 14423.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 145.3 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 845.5 million tons [4][37][39]. Contract and Price Performance - The price of the main 01 contract fluctuated weakly, closing at 771.0 yuan/ton, with a position of 566,000 lots, an increase of 20,200 lots. The average daily trading volume was 281,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 88,200 lots. The spot price basically remained flat week - on - week [7][11]. Downstream Profit - The prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded, and the paper profit has been revised downwards [41]. Spot Category Spread - The inventory of fine ore has decreased recently, and the spread between PB lump and PB fine has slowly narrowed [43]. Futures Month Spread - The recent month spread has been relatively stable [48]. Basis Performance - The recent changes in futures and spot prices have been relatively consistent, and the basis has basically remained flat week - on - week [52].