生猪：短期存在托底情绪，矛盾继续积累

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a bottom - support sentiment in the pig market, but contradictions continue to accumulate. The rebound of spot prices in October led to an extension of the inventory accumulation cycle due to increased second - round fattening enthusiasm, postponing the pressure. The futures market is expected to enter an adjustment phase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (10.20 - 10.26) - Spot Market: Pig prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.4 yuan/kg (last week: 20.4 yuan/kg), the pig price in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1546 yuan/head (last week: 1566 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 124.75KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The supply tightened slightly as group slaughter progress was fast and individual farmers were reluctant to sell. Low prices stimulated demand, and the slaughter volume increased significantly [2]. - Futures Market: Pig futures prices showed a strong - side performance. The highest price of the LH2511 contract was 11615 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11490 yuan/ton (last week: 11050 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 490 yuan/ton (last week: 330 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (10.27 - 11.2) - Spot Market: Pig spot prices will oscillate. After the sharp decline after the National Day holiday, low prices stimulated demand and second - round fattening. Supply is expected to increase continuously, but low prices have boosted demand. The inventory accumulation cycle has been extended, and the pressure has been postponed. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the rebound at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month [3]. - Futures Market: The LH2511 contract price closed at 11490 yuan/ton on October 24. Short - term spot prices are expected to oscillate upward, but the market is expected to enter an adjustment phase. The support level for the LH2511 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton. Traders should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [4]. Other Data - Basis and Month - spread: This week's basis was 490 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 month - spread was - 685 yuan/ton [8]. - Supply: In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 80,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. The average slaughter weight this week was 124.75KG [10].