棉花：注意外部市场因素的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - ICE cotton has been maintaining a low - level volatile trend, lacking fundamental guidance and upward drivers. It is expected to continue this trend, and its bottom is difficult to determine without clarity in international economic and trade situations [5][18] - Domestic cotton futures are in a rebound trend. In the short term, new cotton listings and strong hedging intentions of ginning factories will limit the rebound, while high basis and relatively low absolute prices will provide support. Therefore, it is expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [1][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Variety | Opening Price | High Price | Low Price | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Trading Volume Change (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | Open Interest Change (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main Contract | 64.17 | 64.78 | 63.65 | 64.18 | - 0.11 | - 0.17 | 90058 | - 19512 | 154286 | - 12704 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main Contract | 13360 | 13610 | 13350 | 13540 | 205 | 1.54 | 1157468 | 163138 | 590909 | 4442 | | Cotton Yarn Main Contract | 19490 | 19875 | 19490 | 19810 | 340 | 1.75 | 61434 | 7471 | 24050 | 3379 | [4] 3.2 Fundamentals 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton has maintained a low - level volatile trend around 64 cents per pound due to the suspension of USDA data and reports, lack of fundamental guidance and upward drivers, but supported by commercial buying and rising crude oil prices [5] - The US government shutdown has led to the suspension of the USDA's weekly export sales data [6] - India: In August, cotton exports increased year - on - year. Cotton imports in August were 62,940 tons, up 8% from July and 34% from the same period last year. Cotton exports were 19,000 tons, up 89% from August 2024. Cotton yarn exports were 83,700 tons, up 4% year - on - year. In September, cotton textile product exports (excluding clothing) decreased by 5.5% from August and 13.2% from the same period last year. Garment exports decreased by 19.2% month - on - month and 10.1% year - on - year. Since April 2025, total textile exports have increased by 7% compared to the same period in 2024 [7] - Brazil: In October, cotton exports rebounded. The pre - sale ratio of the 2025 production is about 70%, and that of the next season's expected total production is 32%. The estimated export volume in the first half of October is about 177,000 tons, and the full - month export volume is expected to reach 350,000 tons [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand remains average. Local factories have lowered price expectations due to quality decline, while ginning factories with high - quality inventory are reluctant to sell. Most factories mainly purchase domestic cotton, and import demand remains moderate [8] - Bangladesh: Low prices have stimulated import inquiries. Buyers are mainly interested in recently deliverable or in - transit cotton, and some are planning for long - term purchases. Yarn prices have risen due to improved downstream demand, but order volumes are still lower than normal levels [9][10] - Southeast Asian textile industry startup rates: As of the week of October 24, India's textile enterprise startup rate was 65.5%, Vietnam's was 61.5%, and Pakistan's was 65% [10] 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot transactions are mainly for rigid demand, with prices rising slightly and the basis weakening slightly. Spinning mills' acceptance of current spot prices is average, and some have made small pre - sales [11] - Xinjiang machine - picked seed cotton purchase prices have risen rapidly, with some ginning factories having a cost of 14,700 - 15,000 yuan per metric ton (gross weight), and some having a cost below 14,600 yuan per metric ton (gross weight) [12] - As of October 24, there were 2503 registered cotton warrants and 685 pending warrants, totaling 3188 warrants, equivalent to 133,896 tons [12] - The situation of spinning mills is slightly better than that of weaving mills. Some spinning mills have tentatively raised prices, but actual transactions are limited. New orders for conventional varieties are insufficient, and only low - count yarns and yarns related to autumn and winter fabrics are selling well. Spinning mills' raw material purchases are mainly for rigid demand, and inventories have slightly increased and are higher than the same period in previous years. The sales of the cotton fabric market are dull, with production maintained by order re - orders, and inventories are accumulating [13] 3.3 Basic Data Charts - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mills' cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mills' yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprises' cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' cotton fabric inventory (weekly), yarn enterprises' startup rate (weekly), cotton fabric enterprises' startup rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton fabric CGC32 profit, cotton 1 - 5 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warrants [15][16][17] 3.4 Operational Suggestions - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range volatile trend. If the international economic and trade situation becomes clear, it may be beneficial for an increase in commercial buying. Otherwise, the bottom of ICE cotton is difficult to determine [18] - Domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a narrow - range volatile trend in the short term, with market fluctuations mainly coming from the complex international economic and trade situation [18]