国债期货周报-20251026

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a view that the medium - term general direction of the Treasury bond futures market is oscillating with a bearish bias [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Focus and Market Tracking - Treasury bond futures contracts had a full - week pullback, with short - end prices relatively stagnant and long - end prices fluctuating significantly. The release of the 15th Five - Year Plan proposal improved the sentiment in the equity market, which pressured the bond market [5]. - The Treasury bond futures market showed a differentiated pattern of short - end pressure and long - end oscillation, and the flattening trend of the yield curve continued. The short - end was supported by the low - cost short - term funds, while the long - end was restricted by the expectation of economic data improvement, with limited actual fluctuations. Future fiscal and monetary policy signals should be focused on [7]. - A series of important economic data were released this week. The economy in the first three quarters laid a good foundation for achieving the annual target, and the single - quarter growth rate in Q3 met expectations. With recent policies such as 500 billion yuan in new policy - based financial instruments and 500 billion yuan in carried - forward local bond quotas, the possibility of specific stimulus policies being introduced in 2025 is expected to be low [5]. - The communiqué of the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee was released. The 15th Five - Year Plan continued the long - term per - capita GDP target mentioned in the 3rd Plenary Session and the 20th CPC National Congress, with adjustments in the order and reinforcement of content according to the actual economic and social development situation [5]. 3.2. Liquidity Monitoring and Curve Tracking - No specific content provided other than the title and source information [11][12]. 3.3. Seat Analysis - In terms of the daily change in net long positions by institutional type, private funds decreased by 0.03%, foreign capital decreased by 3.11%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 2.93%. In terms of weekly change, private funds increased by 6.48%, foreign capital decreased by 2.34%, and wealth management subsidiaries decreased by 1.65% [14].