蓄力新高15：十五五后市场有哪些机会

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a focus on "internal priorities" with a preference for growth sectors, particularly in new economy areas such as AI software, AI chips, semiconductor equipment and materials, and aerospace engines, as well as traditional sectors like coal, steel, and large financial institutions [4][11] - There are emerging signals of easing, leading to a shift towards external demand-related sectors, particularly in the third quarter reports for North American computing power and innovative pharmaceuticals [4][11] Impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan - Short to medium-term effects indicate that the introduction of the five-year plan influences market trends, with an upward trajectory observed in the month following its announcement, potentially clarifying market direction and facilitating a rally [5][12] - In the short term (1 month), small-cap and growth stocks may outperform due to subsequent policy benefits, while in the medium term (3 months), larger-cap stocks are expected to be more stable, influenced by calendar effects [5][13] - Long-term impacts suggest that industries aligned with the prioritized tasks of the plan will benefit, particularly those related to new technologies and advancements in production capabilities [5][14] Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment has dropped to a low point, but there is significant potential for improvement in the long term, with a focus on the potential warming of growth sectors [6][17] - The trading volume over the past 60 days has fallen to the 10th percentile, indicating a possible end to the current contraction phase, while historically strong market conditions typically see turnover rates above 4% [6][17] - The TMT sector's congestion index has decreased from the 96th percentile at the end of September to around the 30th percentile, indicating a potential rebound, while the dividend sector's congestion index has risen to approximately the 90th percentile [6][18] Opportunities Post 14th Five-Year Plan - The report highlights a strategic shift towards large financial and consumer sectors, with a focus on new economic technologies and service consumption, as well as traditional resource sectors [7][10] - The recent domestic meetings have provided positive guidance for the market, shifting the focus from safety and balanced development to prioritizing growth, with an emphasis on new productive forces and technological advancements [7][10] - The report suggests that the market is likely to rise again following US-China talks, with a focus on sectors that offer good value based on improving economic expectations [7][11]