宏观与大类资产周报：猪油共振或可计入2026年的通胀假设-20251026

Domestic Insights - The Fourth Plenary Session confirmed that the main direction of the "14th Five-Year Plan" remains focused on technology, aiming to overcome the middle-income trap and establish a domestic and international dual circulation system[1] - Since October 10, domestic liquidity has further loosened, with the DR007 rate slightly declining, indicating limited room for further easing unless interest rates are cut[1] - The domestic market has likely priced in optimistic expectations from the recent China-US talks[1] Overseas Insights - The US September CPI was reported at 3.0%, below the expected 3.1%, reinforcing expectations for consecutive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in December[2] - The EU and the US have intensified sanctions on Russian oil, but the US is unlikely to fully cut off Russian oil exports due to ongoing inflationary pressures and low strategic reserves[2] - Recent zero balances in overnight reverse repos and a rapid rise in SOFR rates have heightened market expectations for an early end to the Fed's balance sheet reduction[2] Asset Market Analysis - The S&P 500 CAPE ratio has reached 40.58, compared to 44.19 before the 2000 Nasdaq bubble burst, suggesting potential paths for US stocks: a 10-20% short-term adjustment leading to continued bull market or accelerated bubble leading to a bear market next year[3] - In 2026, a rebound in Chinese inflation is anticipated due to the "pig oil resonance," with pork prices having only fallen below 18 CNY/kg three times since 2013[3]