煤焦周度观点-20251026

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market has strong fundamentals with a thick trading atmosphere, low auction failure rates, and tight spot resources. Considering factors such as supply, demand, and the macro - environment, the coal - coke sector is expected to continue a strong and volatile trend in the short term [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal - Coke Weekly View - Supply: The overall output recovery of coking coal in production areas is slow due to factors like safety inspections, and there is no significant marginal increase in coke supply [5] - Demand: No specific demand analysis is provided in this section. - Macro: After the successful convening of the Fourth Plenary Session in China and the release of the external communiqué, the market expects the implementation of specific relevant policies. The situation of China - US trade game may reach a critical point next week, and the market risk preference is currently relatively optimistic [5] - View Summary: The tight fundamentals of coking coal are further confirmed by data, with strong spot prices. Coupled with a relatively warm macro - sentiment, the coal - coke sector is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [5] 3.2 Coal - Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 848 (-6.88); FW clean coal 433.45 (+4.7); Independent coking plants' daily average 64.61 (-0.68); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.11 (+0.17) | | | Demand | Hot metal production 239.9 (-1.05) | Hot metal production 239.9 (-1.05) | | Inventory | MS total inventory - 4.2 (coal mines' raw coal - 18.3, coal mines' clean coal - 15.9, independent coking +4.9, independent coking +32.3, steel mills - 6.3, steel mill coking - 5.4, ports +1.4, ports +2.9, FW port +15.7) | | | Profit | Commodity coal 496 (+28) | Coking enterprises' average profit - 41 (-28) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1318 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1621 | [7] 3.3 01 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - Supply - Weekly: Data on the start - up rate of 523 sample mines, FW raw coal output, daily average clean coal output of 523 sample mines, and FW clean coal output are presented [10][12][14] - Monthly: Data on the output of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal are provided [15] - Mongolian Coal Customs Clearance: Data on the customs - clearance volumes of Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports, as well as the total customs - clearance volume of the three ports, are shown [17][20][21][23] - Inventory - Pit - mouth: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 12.54 tons week - on - week to 149.02 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 9.86 tons week - on - week to 90.29 tons [28] - Port: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 275.65 tons, an increase of 2.94 tons week - on - week [30] - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking plants, regional inventory, and inventory available days by production capacity are provided [35][37][39] - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory, available days, regional inventory, and regional available days of coking coal in steel mills are presented [40] 3.4 02 Coke Fundamental Data - Supply - Capacity Utilization - Coking Plant: Data on the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises, including full - sample, 230 - independent - coking - plant, and different - production - capacity and regional capacity utilization rates, are provided [43] - Steel Mill: Data on the capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises are provided [45] - Output - Coking Plant: Data on the daily output of 230 independent coking plants and full - sample independent coking enterprises are provided [47] - Steel Mill: Data on the daily output of 247 steel enterprises are provided [49] - Inventory - Coking Plant: Data on the inventory of full - sample independent coking enterprises and 230 independent coking plants are provided [51] - Steel Mill: Data on the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel - mill sample coking plants are provided [52][54][55] - Full - Sample Aggregation: Data on the total coke inventory and supply - demand difference are provided [57][59] - Demand: Data on coke demand for pig iron and supply - demand differences are provided [60] - Profit: Data on the disk profit of coke per ton, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, and the prices of metallurgical coke are provided [62][63] 3.5 03 Coal - Coke Spot and Futures Prices - Coking Coal Futures: The futures market quotations of coking coal 2601 and coking coal 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [66] - Coke Futures: The futures market quotations of coke 2601 and coke 2605, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests, are provided [68] - Coal - Coke Monthly Spread: Data on the monthly spreads of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 are provided [72] - Coal - Coke Spot: Spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided [75] - Coal - Coke Basis: The JM spot price has been strong recently, and the basis has been running strongly [78] - Warehouse Receipts: Data on the coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 warehouse receipts are provided [80][82]